292
FXUS61 KRLX 010630
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
230 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Exiting high pressure brings one more dry day, before
disturbances bring showers and storms Sunday into the new work
week, with a break on Monday, and above normal temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 230 AM Saturday...

Patchy mountain valley frost at deeper high-elevation mountain
valley cold spots still appears plausible early this morning.
Elsewhere, river valley fog should not become quite as
pronounced as early Friday morning, owing to the high cloud, a
light puff just above the surface, and another day of drying.

Exiting high pressure will bring one more dry day today,
although the process of sunshine being filtered and increasingly
obscured by high cloud will be the harbinger of the next low
pressure system arriving from the west. Clouds will lower and
thicken tonight, with showers becoming likely at least across
the middle Ohio Valley overnight.

The NAM suite and HIRES FV3 core evince a band of precipitation
scooting all the way into the central Appalachians by dawn
Sunday, with a break behind it in the HTS tristate and Tug Fork
areas.

Elevated narrow CAPE may allow for at least in cloud lightning
with a few rumbles of thunder, but of slightly greater concern
are PW values of around 1.5 inches overspreading at least the
middle Ohio Valley by dawn Sunday, on a 35-40 kt h85 theta-e
feed from the southwest, with cloud tops possibly dropping below
the ice in cloud level fostering the efficient warm rain
process.

Central guidance evinces a warmer afternoon today, and then
less of a ridge-valley split amid an increasingly cloudy, and,
eventually, rainy night tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1214 PM Friday...

A 500-mb shortwave and an associated surface low will approach from
the west Sunday, bringing another chance for showers and isolated
thunderstorms. Cloudy skies will keep daytime temperatures in the
70s for most. Expect anywhere from 0.25-0.50" south of I-64 and 0.50-
0.75" for places north of I-64. Drier and warmer weather should
return Monday as the shortwave exits to the east and a ridge builds
aloft. Highs in the 80s will return across the lowlands with the
upper 70s expected in the mountains.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1214 PM Friday...

With surface high pressure sliding to the east, unsettled weather
will return across the state for the rest of the week with
summertime heat and humidity building. Expect daily chances of
diurnal showers and thunderstorms with warm, southerly flow at the
surface and several weak disturbances passing aloft. It looks
like Wednesday will be the worst day for heat and humidity with
highs in the 80s for most and dew points in the upper 60s to
lower 70s. A large cold front will sweep across the eastern 1/3
of the country Thursday. Behind the cold front, temperatures
should settle down closer to average and precipitation chances
should begin to decrease.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 230 AM Saturday...

River valley fog is not expected to be as pronounced early this
morning as it turned out to be early Friday morning, on account
of high cloudiness, a slight increase in low level flow just
above the deck, and another day of drying. Have accounted for
visibility as low as IFR at EKN 09-12Z, and MVFR CKB, PKB and
CRW 10-12Z. Any fog that does develop early this morning
lifts/dissipates by 12Z.

Otherwise, high pressure maintains mainly VFR conditions
through the period, as it exits to the east. High clouds will
gradually lower and thicken this afternoon and tonight,
harbinger of the next low pressure system arriving from the
west. Showers are likely to move into the middle Ohio Valley
near or just after the end of the TAF period, 06Z Sunday, with
at least in-cloud lightning also possible.

Calm to light and variable surface flow early this morning will
become light south to southeast today. Light southwest flow
aloft early this morning will become light south today, and then
light to moderate south to southwest tonight.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium with fog early this morning, high
otherwise.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Patchy valley fog could cause briefly lower
visibility restrictions at EKN/CKB/PKB/CRW near dawn this
morning.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                             SAT 06/01/24
UTC 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
EDT 1HRLY       23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    L    M    L    L    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
Brief IFR conditions possible in showers and thunderstorms on
Sunday, then again at times late Tuesday into Thursday. IFR also
possible in post-rain stratus, and perhaps fog, late Sunday night
and early Monday morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TRM/JP/GW/JMC
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...TRM