423
FXUS61 KRLX 030754
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
354 AM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Possible mountain showers and storms this afternoon and
evening. Warmer with a brief dry spell for most Monday into
Tuesday, before unsettled weather returns by mid-week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 145 AM Monday...

Relatively settled day with some exceptions. It may be partly
unsettled this afternoon due to the elevated heat effect across
the mountains which will promote some shower and storm
potential during the afternoon and into the evening. Outside the
mountains, the lowlands should stay relatively dry, but cannot
rule out a rogue shower or storm, but probability was too low to
add into the forecast at this time. Soundings look fairly good
with plenty of instability, high DCAPE and High PWATs to support
diurnal convection, but a small cap may suppress the potential
for thunderstorm activity outside the mountains.

Most of the instability will be wasted due to weak surface high
pressure and ridging aloft. Hi-res and short term models have
most of the potential activity across the mountains except for
the NAM12 and NAM4K, therefore took a blend of the previous
forecast and newer guidance along with making some custom
tweaks for POPs and thunderstorm probability to account for the
NAM12 and NAM4K being aggressive. However, that is a hint that
there may be some rogue storms outside the higher elevations,
therefore confidence is slightly low for placement of storm
potential under this semi-dirty high pressure system.

Made a model blend for temperatures which equated to about a
degree or two lower than central guidance for the daytime highs
and lows. Mid 70`s to low 80`s are expected for the lowlands and
upper 60`s to mid 70`s for the mountains. For lows tomorrow
morning expect around low 60`s for the lowlands and mid to upper
50`s for the mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 335 AM Monday...

Tuesday brings warmer, mainly dry weather, as surface high
pressure gives way to southerly flow, and mid-upper level
ridging crosses. Elevated heat source diurnal convection is
again possible over the mountains.

The first of a series of weak southern stream short wave
troughs ejecting out ahead of a large mid-upper level system
over the west-central portion of the continent may bring showers
and thunderstorms into the area as early as overnight Tuesday
night, with a slight chance depicted. The greater likelihood
for showers and thunderstorms is Wednesday, particularly
during the afternoon and evening, as the second in the series of
short waves crosses in concert with diurnal heating.

Despite the favored timing, clouds and showers early in the day
limit heating, and 0-6/0-8 km bulk shear is forecast in the
15-25 kt range, perhaps climbing above 30 kts after sunset
Wednesday night. Thunderstorms could be strong Wednesday
afternoon amid 2500-3500 J/Kg surface-based CAPE well through
the hail growth layer, with the equilibrium level all the way up
around h15, but severe weather potential is low unless we could
realize better shear before sunset.

PW values climb to the neighborhood of 1.75 inches Wednesday
afternoon, about as high as it gets in this area this time of
year, so heavy downpours are also possible, with a local high
water threat wherever heavier thunderstorms hit urban or other
low lying, sensitive areas.

Shower and thunderstorm coverage decreases west to east after
sunset Wednesday night, particularly as one last southern
stream short wave and a surface trough/weak cold front cross.

Central guidance reflects above normal temperatures, with
negligible if any cooling with the trough/frontal passage
Wednesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 350 AM Monday...

The large mid-upper level system over the west-central portion
of the continent shifts east, setting up a long wave trough in
the east/ridge in the west pattern for the latter half of the
week. This brings cooler weather, backing us into spring as we
pull within two weeks of the summer solstice.

Full discussion to follow shortly.

As of 1135 AM Sunday...

A cold front will be approaching from the west Thursday, which can
trigger additional showers and thunderstorms. Models show the high
PWAT air exiting the area to the east early Thursday morning ahead
of the front, which may mitigate the threat for flooding. However,
that still remains uncertain at this time. Showers and
thunderstorms are expected through Thursday evening. High
temperatures Thursday will likely be in the lower to mid 80s.

Although the cold front is expected to cross the area Thursday,
models are showing a large upper-level low lingering over the Great
Lakes into next weekend. Because of this, we included chances for
showers each afternoon. The low heights aloft will keep temperatures
somewhat cooler, with highs expected to be in the upper 70s to near
80 in the lowlands through the weekend. Mountains will be even
cooler with highs in the low to mid 70s. There will be times of
sunshine, but energy rotating around the upper low will keep
some clouds around.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 130 AM Monday...

Outside some fog this morning, which will break up slightly
longer than usual since the fog development was from rainfall
activity, it will take slightly longer to dissipate than the usual
valley fog. VFR will then takeover by late morning with chances
of showers and storms near EKN/BKW, but probability is fairly
low. A Cu field will likely develop during the afternoon, but
will be more heavily noticeable along the mountains. Winds will
be very light due to high pressure slackening the pressure
gradient.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VIS restrictions may vary from the
forecast this morning.



EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              MON 06/03/24
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    L    L    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    H    H    M    M    H    M    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    H    M    M    H    H    M

AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
Brief IFR conditions are possible in showers and thunderstorms
at times Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TRM/JZ
NEAR TERM...JZ
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...JMC/TRM
AVIATION...JZ