879
FXUS61 KRLX 270530
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
130 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Periods of rain will continue tonight. Remnants of Helene arrive
Friday morning, spreading strong gusty winds and additional
rainfall into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 930 PM Thursday...

Lowered wind gusts across the area based on observations. Expect
winds to pick up after midnight.

As of 510 PM Thursday...

Increased PoPs across the south and southwest portions of our
area based on ongoing precipitation and radar trends.

As of 202 PM Thursday...

Key Points:

 * Flash Flood Watch in effect until 7 PM Friday for southwest
   VA, and along the WV eastern mountains.

 * High Wind Warning in effect until 7 PM Friday for Dickenson
   and Buchanan in VA, and McDowell in WV.

 * Wind Advisory in effect until 7 PM Friday from Wyoming, north
   through the higher elevations of Pocahontas and Randolph
   counties.

Deepening upper level low pressure will continue to bring abundant
moisture and precipitation mainly across the southern half of
the area tonight. Meanwhile, the center of T.S. Helene will
approach from the south into central KY. Remnants of Helene
(precipitation and strong winds) will be arrive to our area
early Friday, bringing additional precipitation and non-
thunderstorm high/strong winds.

Radar rainfall estimates and rain gauges show from 2 to 4
inches of rain have fallen during the last 24 hours, wetting the
local terrain across the eastern mountains. Additional 1 to 2
inches can be expected over these areas through Friday evening.
This will continue to produce additional water rises of nearby
rivers and creeks, and flooding issues of low lying areas,
flood prone areas or even smaller creeks coming out of their
banks. Therefore, a Flash Flood watch was issued.

Remnants of Helene will be arrive to our area early Friday,
bringing additional precipitation and non-thunderstorm
high/strong winds. Dynamic ensemble model solutions suggest
strong winds 15 to 20 knots arriving to our eastern mountains
early Friday. There is high confidence for wind gusts exceeding
50 knots across our southern mountains, and up to 45 knots
across the higher elevations of our central and northern
mountains on Friday. Therefore, a High Wind Warning was issued
for Buchanan, Dickenson and McDowell through Friday evening. For
the same token, a Wind advisory was issued for the rest of the
higher elevations north to Pocahontas and Randolph.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 206 PM Thursday...

Heavier precipitation should gradually be lifting north and west of
the area Friday night as remnants of Helene congeal with upper low
across MS Valley region, which will continue to rotate just to our
west, before gradually drifting east across the area over the
weekend, leading to a gradual increase in showery activity once
again. Expecting the gusty winds to continue Friday night across the
area, before relaxing over the weekend as the low continues to
weaken. Overall, a showery, gloomy, early fall weekend on tap, with
high temperatures generally topping out in the 60s to lower 70s
across the mountains, and generally mid 70s across the lowlands.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 207 PM Thursday...

Weather remains unsettled early next week as aforementioned low
continues to depart eastward, followed by a front early to mid next
week. Showery and cooler weather will be the rule during much of the
period, although there are indications of high pressure building in
behind the front, for dry conditions, and near seasonable
temperatures to end the period.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 130 AM Friday...

Most sites are reporting VFR currently except for BKW, where
MVFR/IFR CIGs are prominent and will be through the period.
MVFR and IFR could also be expected at HTS and possibly EKN
through the period, but BKW will likely see the the worst
conditions through the period. Mostly VFR could be expected
elsewhere.

Bands of precipitation associated with moisture from Hurricane
Helene to our south will ripple across the area early this
morning, becoming more widespread by and after ~12z. MVFR/IFR
VIS likely within any showers/storms.

Southeast winds will strengthen through the morning peaking
between 12 and 18z. Sustained winds between 15-25kts for most,
especially the mountains with gusts between 25 and 40kts. Higher
gusts approaching 50kts are possible for elevations above 2,500
feet in elevation (i.e. BKW). Winds will gradually start
lessening in the afternoon, but may increase overnight into
Saturday morning, particularly across the southern portions of
the forecast area.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and extent of low CIGs,
precipitation, and gusty winds could vary from forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                             FRI 09/27/24
UTC 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
EDT 1HRLY       23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    L    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    M    M    L    L    L    L    H    M    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    L    M    L    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
Brief, but repetitive periods of IFR conditions possible in
showers and storms into the weekend.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Flood Watch through this evening for WVZ033-034-515-516-518-
     520-522>524.
     High Wind Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for WVZ033.
     Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for WVZ034-515-516-
     518-520-522-523-526.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...Flood Watch through this evening for VAZ003-004.
     High Wind Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for VAZ003-004.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ARJ/SL
NEAR TERM...28/RPY/ARJ
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...LTC