538
FXUS63 KSGF 270001
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
701 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain chances increase by Friday due to the remnants of
  Hurricane Helene. The highest rain chances (50-90%) are late
  Friday morning through Friday afternoon across south-central
  Missouri and the eastern Ozarks.

- Rainfall Amounts Friday/Saturday: 0.5-1.00 inch is expected
  along and east of Highway 63 with localized amounts to 2
  inches. Amounts will drop off drastically further west. Slight
  risk of flash flooding Friday east of a West Plains to Salem
  line.

- Breezy conditions are likely Friday with northerly gusts of 30
  to 40 mph east of Highway 65, especially the West Plains
  region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 245 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

Current Conditions and Synoptic Pattern: Water vapor and upper
air analysis shows several key features that will impact our
weather over the next 48 hours. One being the upper level low
currently located Paducah, Kentucky. The other being the now
category 3 Hurricane Helene barreling towards Florida. The
airmass over our area was still fairly dry aloft and has allowed
for a partly cloudy, near average late September day with temps in
the upper 70s to around 80 and light northerly winds.

Tonight: Hurricane Helene will make landfall tonight in Florida
and will begin moving north into Georgia during the night. The
upper low over Kentucky is forecast to slowly slide south into
Tennessee. HREF data suggests we will likely begin to see some
clouds move in from the east after midnight, especially after
3am for areas along and east of Highway 65. It will take some
time to saturate however light rain looks to begin across the
eastern ozarks by sunrise Friday morning. Mean MU CAPE from the
HREF looks to be less than 250j/kg therefore the thunderstorm
potential looks very low (less than 20%). Areas further west
will likely remain dry overnight. Areas west of Highway 65 will
experience clearing longer and therefore cooler overnight lows
(lower to middle 50s).

Friday: Remnants of Hurricane Helene will lift north and then
northwest into the eastern Tennessee/Kentucky region during the
day. This will allow for both increases in winds and rain
chances for the eastern half of our area as the pressure
gradient increases. Latest HREF guidance continues to show
increasing percentages (40-60%) of wind gusts of at least 40mph
for areas from West Plains and points east. Wind direction will
primarily be out of the north to northwest. Inspection of BUFKIT
soundings for this region also shows the potential of some
mixing down of stronger winds (30-45mph) from as low as 900mb,
especially if precip intensity is not strong. Therefore wind
gusts were increased for tomorrow with the highest gusts
expected during the late morning into the afternoon hours.

Clouds will increase through the morning and expecting a shield
of rain to move from east to west through the area however a
sharp cutoff looks to occur somewhere very close to Springfield.
Areas east of Springfield have the higher chances (over 70%)
while areas west of Springfield may miss out on the rain
(chances less than 30%). The entire upper level system will be
slow to move therefore light rain may linger through Friday
night for areas east of Highway 65. There will also be a large
spread in high temps with areas west of Springfield reaching the
middle 70s with areas east of Springfield remaining in the
lower to middle 60s.

While there is still a spread in guidance with respect to
rainfall amounts, the spread is beginning to decrease. WPC rainfall
amounts are in the 0.50-1.00 in range along and east of Highway
63. This is also supported by the HREF with a few local maximums
near 2 inches across Oregon and Shannon counties. The overall
trend has been for the heavier amounts to remain east of our
area. The slight risk for flash flooding has been nudged
slightly east as well and mainly for areas along and east of a
West Plains to Salem line. No Flood Watch is expected at this
time due to the decreased amounts.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 245 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

Saturday and Sunday: Given the current upper level pattern, the
low to the east will be very slow to move, therefore clouds and
light rain chances will linger at times for the weekend east of
Springfield. Areas along and west of Highway 65 will likely
experience plenty of dry time and near average temperatures
depending on cloud cover. Even east of Springfield rain chances
are not overly high (less than 50%) with the bulk of the rain
east of our area.

Next Week: Ensemble cluster analysis shows an upper level
disturbance will move through the northern plains on Monday and
will kick out the slow moving low. A period of northwest flow
aloft looks likely next week as an upper level high takes shape
across the southwest US. This will likely equate to a stretch of
dry weather as NBM precip chances are less than 20 percent for
the week. Temperatures largely look to remain near average with
the exception of perhaps Tuesday night and Wednesday as a dry
frontal passage may take shape with cooler temperatures however
confidence is low on the timing of that front.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 657 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

Main impacts to TAF sites will come on Friday as remnants of the
hurricane move east of the area. This will be gusty winds up to
20-30 Kts out of the north. Most of the rain will stay east, but
there`s a 20-30% chance of rain and perhaps MVFR ceilings at
KSGF and KBBG Saturday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burchfield
LONG TERM...Burchfield
AVIATION...Titus