292
FXUS64 KSHV 291748
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1248 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1023 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024

Updates were rather minor this morning for the remainder of the
day, involving some readjustment of pops mainly. Large MCV
spinning across NE TX attm with large precip shield increasing in
coverage and intensity across the Lower Toledo Bend and Sam
Rayburn Country of WC LA and Deep East Texas, as well as across
the Piney Woods of NE TX. For the update, followed the HREF very
closely which appears to have the best handle on current
convection. As we transition into the afternoon, look for storm
coverage to begin increasing into NW LA as well as across SE OK
and portions of SW AR with NE LA and SC AR likely the last areas
to see precipitation. Thus, it would make sense that our eastern
zones would see the best heating and the current forecast has a
pretty good handle on this way of thinking, thus no changes were
made to the temperature portion of the forecast.

Update has already been sent.

13

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday through Thursday)
Issued at 154 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024

Upper-level high pressure centered across Mexico will allow for
west to northwest flow across the ArkLaTex today. At the surface,
high pressure centered across the Great Lakes into the middle to
lower Mississippi River Valleys will allow for weak southerly flow
across the ArkLaTex. Ongoing convection across central Texas is
the result of a weak disturbance riding southeast within the mean
upper-flow aloft along remnant outflow boundaries from previous
convection. There is some uncertainty amongst the models as to how
this convection will evolve through the morning hours. Based on
latest radar trends, any strong convection across central Texas
through daybreak will likely shift southwest of the ArkLaTex.
However, with the approach of the upper-level weakness, could see
renewed convection develop later today across much of the
ArkLaTex. With increased cloud cover and ample mixing and
precipitation, temperatures this afternoon will average in the
80s.

Another upper-level disturbance will shift southeast across
Central Texas late Thursday afternoon and evening along and ahead
of a surface dryline. Remnant dryline convection will be driven
east into the ArkLaTex by an upper-level disturbance late tonight
through daybreak Thursday. Most of this precipitation is expected
to remain sub-severe but could support a marginally severe hail
and damaging wind threat across portions of northeast Texas and
southeast Oklahoma. High temperatures on Thursday to average in
the low to mid 80s. /05/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 154 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024

Upper-level ridge is forecast to remain parked across Mexico
through the long-term period resulting in a persistent
northwest flow pattern to prevail across the ArkLaTex. Cyclic
impulses diving southeast within this pattern will support
periods of convection through the period. Seems like models have a
decent handle on predicting the frequency of convective episodes
sweeping across the ArkLaTex to be almost daily. Where the
uncertainty lies from each model run is timing and level of
intensity for each event. For this forecast package, kept fairly
decent rain chances each day with slightly cooler than average
temperatures due to increased mixing and cloud cover. High
temperatures to average in the low to mid 80s through the weekend
with lows in the lower 70s. Additionally, will have to monitor
rainfall totals through the period in the event routine heavy
rainfall events could eventually pose a flooding risk. /05/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024

Cluster of showers and thunderstorms are actively working across
the southern extent of the airspace this afternoon. At the same
time, light showers will prevail across the I-20 terminals, while
dense BKN/OVC remains overhead. Clouds should scatter out a bit
here through the next several hours, before a mix of SCT/BKN takes
over during the overnight hours, with OVC prevailing after
sunrise just about airspace wide. With this will come some
lowering CIGs sub FL100. Convective models continue to paint
various solutions in terms of mid to late morning initiation of
SHRA/TSRA. Given uncertainty, have elected to include VCSH on the
back side of the package to promote some awareness of convection
in and around the terminals late tomorrow morning. Future TAF
packages and evening guidance should help to present a clearer
image as to what is expected closer to 12z-15z Thursday.

RK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  71  85  71  84 /  50  70  30  70
MLU  68  85  69  85 /  50  70  30  50
DEQ  65  79  65  79 /  60  60  40  70
TXK  67  82  68  81 /  60  60  40  70
ELD  66  81  65  81 /  60  70  30  60
TYR  70  83  70  82 /  50  70  40  70
GGG  70  83  70  82 /  50  70  40  70
LFK  71  85  71  85 /  30  70  30  70

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...53