170
FXUS64 KSHV 290657
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
157 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday through Thursday)
Issued at 154 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024

Upper-level high pressure centered across Mexico will allow for
west to northwest flow across the ArkLaTex today. At the surface,
high pressure centered across the Great Lakes into the middle to
lower Mississippi River Valleys will allow for weak southerly flow
across the ArkLaTex. Ongoing convection across central Texas is
the result of a weak disturbance riding southeast within the mean
upper-flow aloft along remnant outflow boundaries from previous
convection. There is some uncertainty amongst the models as to how
this convection will evolve through the morning hours. Based on
latest radar trends, any strong convection across central Texas
through daybreak will likely shift southwest of the ArkLaTex.
However, with the approach of the upper-level weakness, could see
renewed convection develop later today across much of the
ArkLaTex. With increased cloud cover and ample mixing and
precipitation, temperatures this afternoon will average in the
80s.

Another upper-level disturbance will shift southeast across
Central Texas late Thursday afternoon and evening along and ahead
of a surface dryline. Remnant dryline convection will be driven
east into the ArkLaTex by an upper-level disturbance late tonight
through daybreak Thursday. Most of this precipitation is expected
to remain sub-severe but could support a marginally severe hail
and damaging wind threat across portions of northeast Texas and
southeast Oklahoma. High temperatures on Thursday to average in
the low to mid 80s. /05/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 154 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024

Upper-level ridge is forecast to remain parked across Mexico
through the long-term period resulting in a persistent
northwest flow pattern to prevail across the ArkLaTex. Cyclic
impulses diving southeast within this pattern will support
periods of convection through the period. Seems like models have a
decent handle on predicting the frequency of convective episodes
sweeping across the ArkLaTex to be almost daily. Where the
uncertainty lies from each model run is timing and level of
intensity for each event. For this forecast package, kept fairly
decent rain chances each day with slightly cooler than average
temperatures due to increased mixing and cloud cover. High
temperatures to average in the low to mid 80s through the weekend
with lows in the lower 70s. Additionally, will have to monitor
rainfall totals through the period in the event routine heavy
rainfall events could eventually pose a flooding risk. /05/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1241 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024

For the 29/06Z TAF update, MVFR vis/cigs are expected through most
of the period due to VCSH/VCTS development, low clouds and light
easterly winds. /16/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  87  71  84  71 /  50  50  60  30
MLU  90  68  85  69 /  40  50  60  30
DEQ  82  64  78  65 /  50  60  50  40
TXK  85  67  81  68 /  50  60  60  40
ELD  85  65  80  65 /  50  60  60  30
TYR  84  70  83  70 /  70  50  60  40
GGG  85  70  83  69 /  60  50  60  40
LFK  87  70  85  71 /  60  30  70  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...16