020
FXUS64 KSHV 231804 AAA
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
104 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1049 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024

No major updates are required to the forecast grids for the
remainder of today. As of the 16Z hour, the ArkLaTex is
experiencing a respite between rounds of convection, as our early
morning storms advance into southern and central Arkansas, while
new convection begins to fire up in Texas south of Waco. Expanded
PoPs further south and west to account for potential impacts from
said Texas storms, and nudged today`s afternoon highs by 1-2
degrees, given more stubborn cloud cover looking to hang on, as
broken skies are overtaken by fresh OVC decks from the southwest.

/26/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 104 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024

MVFR cigs have recently begun to lift early this afternoon across
much of E TX/N LA, although these cigs will persist through at
least mid afternoon across SW AR, near a residual mesoscale bndry
leftover from the early morning convection extending from extreme
SE OK into Srn AR. VFR conditions will prevail elsewhere this
afternoon and evening, with a extensive cu field accompanied by
elevated cigs from blowoff with the convection ongoing across
Cntrl TX. The sfc bndry is expected to slowly begin to return back
N and eventually wash out across SW AR this afternoon, but could
provide focus of isolated to scattered convection this afternoon
across SW AR, mainly N of the TXK/ELD terminals. Will have to
await the arrival of a shortwave trough over W TX, which will
traverse E across the state this afternoon and should enhance
scattered convection development across Cntrl TX, which should
gradually spread E into E TX by mid and late afternoon. Have
delayed mention of VCTS for the area terminals (except for
TYR/GGG), with the potentially more organized convection waiting
until early to mid evening before affecting the SW AR/N LA
terminals. Still unsure as to the extent of convection, but the
gradual expectation is for the convection to diminish from W to E
later this evening/overnight. The convection should also delay the
onset of MVFR cig development, but should set in at LFK shortly
after 06Z, and the remaining terminals after 09Z. Gradual
improvement is expected through mid-morning, before cigs begin to
lift and eventually return to VFR by the end of the 18Z TAF
period. SSE winds 6-10kts will continue this afternoon and
tonight. /15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  91  74  93  74 /  40  40  10  20
MLU  90  70  93  72 /  40  40   0  20
DEQ  84  67  90  68 /  50  70  20  40
TXK  88  71  91  71 /  40  60  20  40
ELD  87  68  91  69 /  40  60  10  30
TYR  88  72  92  73 /  40  50  20  30
GGG  89  71  92  72 /  40  40  10  30
LFK  92  74  94  74 /  40  40   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
AVIATION...15