Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
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273 FXUS64 KSHV 231558 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 1058 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 1049 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024 No major updates are required to the forecast grids for the remainder of today. As of the 16Z hour, the ArkLaTex is experiencing a respite between rounds of convection, as our early morning storms advance into southern and central Arkansas, while new convection begins to fire up in Texas south of Waco. Expanded PoPs further south and west to account for potential impacts from said Texas storms, and nudged today`s afternoon highs by 1-2 degrees, given more stubborn cloud cover looking to hang on, as broken skies are overtaken by fresh OVC decks from the southwest. /26/ && .SHORT TERM... (Thursday through Friday Night) Issued at 137 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Very active afternoon and evening with strong to severe thunderstorms across much of the Four State Region on Wednesday with the key question being...will that continue today and tonight? Currently, the low levels are pretty worked over instability wise but that is not stopping elevated convection across portions of Deep East Texas, Southwest Arkansas as well as upstream across the Upper and Middle Red River Valley of S OK. The true frontal boundary remains stationary across NC TX into SE OK attm but a large outflow boundary was present across Deep East Texas snaking its way north and east into N LA with another boundary noted north of the AR/LA border. These boundaries should washout as we go through the day but will continue to serve as focuses for at least isolated to scattered convection this morning until we have time to destabilize once again this afternoon. When it comes to severe weather possibilities this afternoon into the evening hours today, features are a little more subtle than what was present on Wednesday but having said that, our region remains under WSW flow aloft and progs are hinting at a couple disturbances embedded in this flow moving out of the Tx Hill Country and into our region later today. Moderate to strong instability will be returning to our region during peak heating and should provide the fuel necessary for additional strong to severe thunderstorms once again but maybe not quite as numerous as what we saw on Wed. Still looks like large hail and damaging thunderstorm wind gusts will be the main threats given relatively steep mid-level lapse rates and Deep Layer Shear values, especially if we can see any discrete supercell thunderstorms again later in the period. The threat should subside late tonight as the boundary layer begins to stabilize. Friday looks like a carbon copy of today except storm initiation may be a little further to our west and northwest and given this possibility, it would be mainly evening variety thunderstorm chances we would have to deal with across mainly our west and northwest half. Again, given ample instability, severe thunderstorms will again be possible with large hail and damaging wind gusts again the main threats Friday Evening. The northern half of the Four State Region remains under a Slight Risk for Excessive Heavy Rainfall and given the relatively high pwats in place, much like what we saw on Wednesday, cannot rule out flooding of low lying and flood prone areas through tonight with much less of a threat for Friday Evening. 13 && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 137 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Much of Saturday looks pretty much uneventful precipitation wise at least until late in the afternoon but most likely in the evening with the ejection of shortwave energy into the Southern Plains. Much of the forcing in association with this trough should remain to our west and northwest but during the evening, can`t rule out some of this activity brushing our far west and northwest zones, mainly northwest of the I-30 Corridor. Much like today and Friday, Saturday`s activity will be tied to peak heating with this activity decreasing in coverage and intensity during the overnight hours. Kept pops out of the forecast for the most part on Sunday as the upper levels undergo a pattern change across the CONUS. Ridging will become anchored across the Intermountain West as a longwave trough gets shunted eastward into the Central Plains. This trough will have a cold front associated with it with this boundary expected to move south and east through our CWA late in the day Monday into Monday Night. Reintroduced small pops to coincide with peak heating on Memorial Day, mainly across our southeast half. Look for temps not as hot on Tue and Wed across the region even though the upstream ridge flattens out as it emerges east of the Intermountain West and into the Great Plains by the end of the 7-day forecast period. 13 && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 650 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024 A convective complex will continue to move southeast from Southeast Oklahoma and across portions of extreme Northeast Texas and much of Southwest Arkansas. KTXK will most likely be affected, and model guidance is in good agreement that these storms will survive long enough to reach KELD early in the period. Beyond 23/18z, the forecast becomes increasingly uncertain. More scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop during the afternoon hours and move eastward affecting the TAF sites through the evening and overnight. Confidence is low in this forecast. If convection develops, it should largely move east out of the area by 24/04z. However, some of the models suggest another early morning convective complex will arrive from the northwest late in the period. CN && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 91 74 93 74 / 40 40 10 20 MLU 90 70 93 72 / 40 40 0 20 DEQ 84 67 90 68 / 50 70 20 40 TXK 88 71 91 71 / 40 60 20 40 ELD 87 68 91 69 / 40 60 10 30 TYR 88 72 92 73 / 40 50 20 30 GGG 89 71 92 72 / 40 40 10 30 LFK 92 74 94 74 / 40 40 0 10 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM....13 AVIATION...09