Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
194 FXUS64 KSHV 220603 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 103 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 934 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024 As of 9:45 PM CDT this evening, temperatures are approaching the upper 70s under mostly clear skies and robust southeasterly winds at 10 mph. Winds will gradually slacken below 10 mph overnight with temperature minimums falling accordingly into the mid-70s. With weather and observed trends continuing as anticipated, forecast grid adjustments were not necessary at this time. /16/ && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday Night) Issued at 249 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024 Quiet conditions across the region today, with mostly cloudy skies. Despite the clouds, temps are still running well above normal, with most areas seeing upper 80s to around 90 degrees at this hour. The center of the upper level ridge in place this morning has started to shift south of the region. This has allowed for southwesterly flow aloft to develop over the area. A weak short-wave along the flow has already kicked off some isolated showers and thunderstorms to the west and northwest of the region. Progs haven`t handled this very well, but the 06z ECMWF kinda shows some indication of this. The storms haven`t been severe, but some have been strong enough for our surrounding offices to issue SPS`s. Expect some of this convection to eventually move into our NW zones later this afternoon before diminishing. The best chance for this occurring will be across areas along and north of I-30 corridor. SPC has continued to highlight a Slight Risk for severe storms in the aforementioned area. This is mostly due to some additional convection developing this evening along a front moving across Oklahoma. This convection could move into our Slight Risk zones before diminishing again late this evening. Hail and damaging winds will be our primary threat. The front will likely stall just to the NW of the region tonight, but additional convection is expected to develop along it as early as Wednesday morning. Although the front should remain NW of the area, the convection is likely to make it into the region throughout the day on Wednesday. uncertainty remains on how far south the convection will make it into the region, but we are pretty confident areas along and north of I-30 will see the brunt of the storms. SPC has highlighted this with an Enhanced risk for severe weather. It does appear that large large hail and damaging winds are the greatest risk, but can`t rule out tornadoes. If these storms train, flash flooding could also become a risk. The convection should start to diminish in coverage by Wednesday evening, but with residual boundaries left over from convection, decided to keep pops in place along and north of I-20 through Thursday morning. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through next Monday) Issued at 249 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024 The frontal boundary will retreat more north of the region on Thursday, but POPs remain in the forecast. Most of this convective development will be tied to residual boundaries in place from the previous day convection and additional weak disturbances moving along the flow aloft. Plenty of instability will remain in place, so more damaging wind gusts and large hail will be possible. With another day of convection across the area, excessive rainfall will also become more of an issue. By Friday and through the upcoming Memorial Holiday Weekend, slight chance to low end chance POPs will remain in the forecast. Most of this convection will generally be along and north of the I-20 corridor and will be during peak heating hours. Besides the rain, the other hazard that could be of concern is the heat. Afternoon highs are expected to climb into the mid 90s, especially along and south of the I-20 corridor. With low to mid 70 degree dewpoints in place, heat indices could climb between 100-105 degrees, which is just below Heat Advisory criteria. Still expecting a pattern shift early next week as upper ridging appears to becomes dominate across the Intermountain West, with troughing developing across the Midwest. This should result in a front moving through the area, followed by a shift to NW Flow and a cooler pattern for our region. Expect more widespread precip chances with the frontal passage. /20/ && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1247 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Low clouds and MVFR ceilings will continue to spread across the region affecting all TAF sites early in the period. A very slow improvement is expected after sunrise, but VFR flight conditions should return to most sites by 22/19z except across Southeast Oklahoma, Southwest Arkansas and portions of Northeast Texas. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will also begin to develop by 22/19z along and north of Interstate 30 before increasing in coverage and intensity while gradually spreading east and southeast. All TAF sites are expected to be affected by strong to severe convection before the end of the period. CN && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 73 91 75 95 / 30 10 10 0 MLU 72 90 73 93 / 20 10 10 0 DEQ 66 84 67 88 / 70 50 50 10 TXK 70 88 72 92 / 60 30 40 10 ELD 68 88 69 92 / 40 20 30 10 TYR 72 89 74 92 / 30 20 10 10 GGG 72 90 73 93 / 30 10 10 10 LFK 74 92 74 94 / 10 0 0 0 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...16 LONG TERM....20 AVIATION...09