Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
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687 FXUS64 KSHV 240913 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 413 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Friday through Saturday) Issued at 412 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Active weather will continue through the next 18-24 hours before a lull returns across the Four State Region. This is due to troughing along a meandering frontal boundary with weak shortwaves in quasi-zonal flow aloft all acting to instigate rounds of convection across the Southern Great Plains into the Ark-La-Tex. High-resolution guidance/CAMs suggest the next round of convection developing ahead of the frontal boundary as it shifts southward across north-central Texas, with developing thunderstorms shifting further southeast of the I-20 corridor after sunset Friday and continuing overnight. Compressional heating (especially where storms don`t form) will also keep temperature maximums/minimums above average, reaching the upper 80s/low 90s and low-to-mid 70s, respectively. /16/ && .LONG TERM... (Saturday Night through Friday) Issued at 412 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Somewhat of a respite from active weather will arrive across the Four State Region going into next week. This is due to frontal passage expected by early next week coinciding with generally overrunning shortwaves in quasi-zonal flow transitioning to northwesterly flow as ridging builds in further north across Texas. This will not preclude parts of the area from just about daily chances of afternoon convection, and about 1 to 2 inches of rainfall according to the latest WPC QPF. Temperature maximums/minimums will respond in-kind with upper 80s/upper 60s lower 70s, respectively (and back to near normal for this time of the year). /16/ && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1228 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024 South winds 10 to 15 knots to persist through the terminal forecast period ending 25/06Z. Low-level moisture will bring MVFR ceilings to the region from 25/09Z through 25/15Z with ceilings lifting to VFR thereafter. Otherwise, VCTS conditions expected after 25/02Z across TYR/GGG/TXK/ELD terminals with tempo TSRA conditions expected across TYR/TXK/ELD after 25/04Z. /05/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 93 74 93 76 / 10 30 0 0 MLU 92 71 92 74 / 10 20 10 0 DEQ 86 67 87 71 / 10 40 10 10 TXK 90 71 91 73 / 10 40 10 10 ELD 90 69 90 71 / 20 40 10 0 TYR 91 72 92 75 / 10 30 0 0 GGG 92 71 92 74 / 10 30 0 0 LFK 94 73 95 75 / 0 10 0 0 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...16 LONG TERM....16 AVIATION...05