Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
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238 FXUS64 KSHV 261951 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 251 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday Night) Issued at 249 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Mostly clear skies with only a few clouds have dominated ArkLaTex skies today and look to continue to do so overnight, while prevailing northerly winds and a much drier air mass than we have recently experienced work together with the clear skies to plunge low temperatures into the upper 50s and lower 60s, a pleasant and very literal breath of fresh air as we begin to cast off the tedious oppressive heat and humidity of summer. However, before the much-anticipated fall-like conditions can prevail, a last few wx grids bear mentioning. While our upper level trough forms a large and deep closed low over eastern Arkansas and western Tennessee, Hurricane Helene will be approaching landfall along the Florida panhandle, overnight tonight into tomorrow morning. Long-range forecast models have been persistent in depicting suggested a Fujiwara effect resulting from their interaction. Specifically, as Helene approaches land and intensifies, its presence will help amplify the middle Mississippi low upon approach. As Helene moves inland, it looks to get picked up by the circulation surrounding the middle Mississippi low, and swung around to the northwest over the Ohio Valley before ultimately getting absorbed by the Mississippi low. The effects of this pattern on ArkLaTex weather will take the form of a few rounds of showers and storms across our northeastern zones Friday afternoon, swept in from the north on the western fringes of the upper level closed low to our northeast. The latest guidance keeps this activity mostly to the north of the I-20 corridor, primarily impacting DeQueen down towards El Dorado, with the possible exception of some slight chances diving south towards Monroe Friday afternoon. This activity looks to dissipate late Friday evening, lifting north and east overnight, with quiet conditions to follow. In a nutshell, the dry airmass introduced this week by our recent cold front will stick around, allowing for warm afternoons and pleasantly cool mornings. /26/ && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Wednesday) Issued at 249 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 After Hurricane Helene gets absorbed by the upper level low over the Mississippi Valley, which looks to occur during the day Friday, the resulting low will deepen considerably, depicted with 560 dam heights in the GFS solution, along with closed isoheight lines reaching from Chicagoland to the Gulf Coast. Despite the formidable appearance of this feature in upper level analysis, its pressure center looks to migrate northeast from the Tennessee Valley to the Ohio Valley as it reorganizes itself. This propagation will slide the whole system far enough northeast to release the ArkLaTex from its grasp by the start of the weekend, with dry and quiet conditions prevailing through to the end of this extended forecast period. High temperatures may manage to rebound into the upper 80s to lower 90s by the end of the period but should not much exceed seasonable values, with corresponding lows remaining in the upper 50s to lower 60s throughout. /26/ && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1247 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 VFR conditions will continue through the 26/18Z TAF period. A scattered cu field has developed across the region early this afternoon, but should diminish by/shortly after 00Z. SKC is expected overnight, although areas of cirrus and some AC cigs should begin to spread SSE into portions of SW AR by the end of the TAF period on the backside of an upper low that will drift into the mid and Lower MS Valley. NNE winds 8-12kts, with some occasional higher gusts to 20kts over NE LA, will become light N or Lt/Vrb after 00Z. /15/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 63 86 66 87 / 0 10 0 0 MLU 61 85 65 87 / 0 20 10 0 DEQ 57 82 61 83 / 0 20 10 0 TXK 60 84 64 85 / 0 20 10 0 ELD 58 83 63 83 / 0 30 10 0 TYR 61 86 64 87 / 0 0 0 0 GGG 59 85 63 86 / 0 10 0 0 LFK 61 86 64 88 / 0 0 0 0 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM....26 AVIATION...15