775
FXUS64 KSHV 232017
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
317 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 316 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024

An area of showers and thunderstorms is developing south of the
Dallas-Ft. Worth metroplex this afternoon and slowly tracking to the
east. Based on the present environment, conditions look to
deteriorate across the ArkLaTex this evening as this complex
advances into the area. Similar storm behavior to yesterday is
anticipated, where discrete cells may manage to develop early,
eventually coalescing into an MCS-like feature as the event
continues. The primary threats tonight will again be large hail
transitioning to damaging winds, though an isolated tornado or two
cannot be ruled out altogether.

The longest-lasting precipitation overnight looks to be dissipating
by near daybreak, making for mostly dry conditions to follow for
most of the day Friday. The timing of these complexes of storms has
remained a point of uncertainty through the week, thus the latest
timing estimation ought to be taken with a grain of salt. That being
said, the Friday evening convection looks to begin impacting the
ArkLaTex after 00Z Saturday, principally north of US Hwy 84. Impacts
again look to largely include damaging severe hail as well as gusty
winds, Once again largely dissipating by daybreak Saturday.

/26/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 316 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024

As of this writing, the daytime hours Saturday look to largely be
dry. As a more robust threat for severe weather takes shape to our
west and north, impacts may manage to graze the northernmost zones
of the ArkLaTex, primarily along and north of the I-30 corridor, and
mostly likely following the pattern of recent days with impacts
beginning after 00Z Sunday, continuing through the night and coming
to an end by Sunday morning.

Sunday and Monday will see a continuation of this timing pattern, as
the morning and afternoon will likely be dry, with the best chances
for some scattered showers and storms along our northeast fringes
near or after sundown, with more widespread impacts possible Monday
afternoon and overnight with the frontal passage.

The weekend will see persistent southerly flow reinforce the warming
trend experienced this week, with widespread highs in the low 90s
across the region and an increase in highs climbing into the middle
90s, in concert with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s, these will
make for uncomfortable to oppressive humidity for portions of the
region before a regime change finally takes effect.

Said pattern shift looks to manifest during the day Monday, as the
upper level troughing associated with the surface boundary finally
gets nudged north and east by a building ridge out of the west. This
transitional pattern will allow for northwesterly flow to return
area lows to the 60s and highs to the 80s through at least the
middle of next week, followed by a fairly quick return to the 90s by
the end of this extended forecast period, with mostly dry conditions
through Tuesday and Wednesday and the next notable chance of
rainfall arriving before dawn next Thursday.

/26/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 104 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024

MVFR cigs have recently begun to lift early this afternoon across
much of E TX/N LA, although these cigs will persist through at
least mid afternoon across SW AR, near a residual mesoscale bndry
leftover from the early morning convection extending from extreme
SE OK into Srn AR. VFR conditions will prevail elsewhere this
afternoon and evening, with a extensive cu field accompanied by
elevated cigs from blowoff with the convection ongoing across
Cntrl TX. The sfc bndry is expected to slowly begin to return back
N and eventually wash out across SW AR this afternoon, but could
provide focus of isolated to scattered convection this afternoon
across SW AR, mainly N of the TXK/ELD terminals. Will have to
await the arrival of a shortwave trough over W TX, which will
traverse E across the state this afternoon and should enhance
scattered convection development across Cntrl TX, which should
gradually spread E into E TX by mid and late afternoon. Have
delayed mention of VCTS for the area terminals (except for
TYR/GGG), with the potentially more organized convection waiting
until early to mid evening before affecting the SW AR/N LA
terminals. Still unsure as to the extent of convection, but the
gradual expectation is for the convection to diminish from W to E
later this evening/overnight. The convection should also delay the
onset of MVFR cig development, but should set in at LFK shortly
after 06Z, and the remaining terminals after 09Z. Gradual
improvement is expected through mid-morning, before cigs begin to
lift and eventually return to VFR by the end of the 18Z TAF
period. SSE winds 6-10kts will continue this afternoon and
tonight. /15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  93  74  93 /  40   0  30   0
MLU  71  93  72  93 /  50   0  20  10
DEQ  66  86  68  87 /  70  10  40  10
TXK  70  90  71  90 /  70  10  50  10
ELD  67  90  69  90 /  50  10  40  10
TYR  72  92  72  93 /  40  10  30   0
GGG  71  92  71  92 /  40  10  30   0
LFK  75  94  73  95 /  10   0  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...15