450
FXUS64 KSJT 220916
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
416 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 416 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024

...Severe storms expected this afternoon into tonight...

Currently, we have light southeasterly flow to the south of a
cold front that is moving south through the southern plains. This
cold front is expected to move south into our area today, with
most guidance showing the front near or just south of a San Angelo
to San Saba line by mid to late afternoon. Temperatures by mid
afternoon south of the front will climb well into the 90s, while
north of the front, low to mid 80s are likely. Dewpoint values are
expected to remain in the mid 60s to low, and possibly mid 70s,
with increasing moisture the farther east you go. This combination
of warm temps and high dewpoints will yield CAPE values along and
south of the front from 3000 to as high as 4400 J/kg. This
instability, along with ample mid level instability, and deep
layer shear values of 40+ knots will result in any thunderstorms
developing quickly strengthening to severe levels. Not only will
these storms be severe, but hail of 2 inches or larger is likely,
especially with the initial storms that are expected to be
discrete supercells. Along with the very large hail, a few
tornadoes are also possible, particularly any storms that move
along the frontal boundary or any outflow boundaries from
neighboring storms. Individual storm motions are expected to be to
the east/southeast, but some right-moving storms will likely
develop a more southerly direction. As the event evolves, these
discrete storms should grow upscale into a southeastward moving
MCS during the evening hours. As this occurs, there will be a
growing risk for severe wind gusts in addition to large hail, and
a few tornadoes. Expect most of the thunderstorm activity to be
south and east of our area by Midnight or so, although some of the
CAMs do develop additional scattered showers and storms after
midnight, mainly south of I-20. These should be much less intense,
but could offer some marginally severe hail or wind gusts.

Other than the storms, temperatures will be hot south of the
front, and combined with dewpoints in the 60s to lower 70s, there
is a risk for heat-related illnesses for anyone working or
exercising outside. Overnight lows will be in the mid 60s to lower
70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 128 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

An unsettled pattern looks to continue Wednesday night through
Thursday. The front that will have pushed into central Texas on
Wednesday should retreat northward on Thursday morning and allow a
warm and unstable airmass to persist over the region.
Thunderstorm chances on Thursday should be focused mainly across
north-central Texas, thanks to mid-level impulses embedded in the
quasi-zonal flow. However, there will be some potential for severe
storms across the eastern Big Country and down to Brownwood.
Further southwest, storms will struggle to develop given the lack
of upper dynamics.

A hot and dry pattern is likely to take over for Friday through
Sunday. Although the upper-level pattern should remain generally
the same, the next couple of systems moving through the country`s
midsection are likely to bring a drier airmass into west central
Texas during this time. A weak frontal boundary looks to stall
around I-20 on Friday. This is likely to hold temperatures below
100 degrees for the Big Country on Friday afternoon, but no such
luck for areas further south. Otherwise, searing, and way-too-soon
triple-digit heat should take over for the holiday weekend.

Getting into early next week, models show that a stronger cold
front should drop into Texas for Monday and Tuesday. There is
still uncertainty in this solution, evidenced by the MEX guidance
showing highs in the upper 80s and the ECX guidance showing 100.
Regardless, we should hopefully see an increase in clouds and
chances for showers. If nothing else, the front could provide at
least some temporary relief from the heat.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 110 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024

We currently have VFR conditions at all sites with SCT to BKN
upper level clouds streaming across the area. Although it`s
difficult to see through the high clouds, low clouds at MVFR
heights can be seen developing to our south and moving north into
our area. Have kept the same general timing of MVFR CIGs from the
previous set of TAFs. Will have MVFR ceilings affect all of our
sites tonight into the mid to late morning hours. A cold front
will move south into the area during day as well, turning wind to
the northeast at KABI by midday, as well as bringing a chance of
TSRA to KABI, KSJT, KBBD, and KJCT during the afternoon and
evening hours, that may bring temporary MVFR conditions as well as
gusty and erratic winds. After storms move out of the area between
00Z and 03Z, most sites should return to VFR conditions.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     87  68  91  69 /  50  30  20   0
San Angelo  99  70  99  67 /  30  20  10   0
Junction    99  72  99  71 /  20  20  10   0
Brownwood   87  69  89  71 /  50  40  30   0
Sweetwater  85  68  94  66 /  40  10  10   0
Ozona       98  71  99  68 /  10  20  10   0
Brady       93  70  91  71 /  40  30  20  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....SK
AVIATION...20