Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
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938 FXUS64 KSJT 170847 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 347 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024 ...New LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 305 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024 Expect mainly a dry forecast today and tonight as the storm system is east of our area. However, the combination of surface heating, some low level moisture and weak instability may result in a few thunderstorms mainly across the northern Big Country and Northwest Hill Country during the afternoon and early evening. The main hazards will be dangerous lightning and gusty winds. Highs today will be in the upper 70s and 80s. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 347 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024 Hotter and generally drier conditions are expected in the long term. By Saturday, upper level ridging will begin moving into west central Texas, and the 850mb thermal ridge will also intensify, warming 5 to 10 degrees Celsius from Friday afternoon values. The upper level ridging will continue through Monday. Monday afternoon, an upper level closed low is expected to move into the southern California coast and merge with a northern stream upper level trough moving southeast into the western U. S. This will push the upper level ridge to the east, but we will remain hot through at least Tuesday as the low level thermal ridge remains intense. By the end of the long term, a cold front is expected to move into the area, potentially providing a focus for showers and thunderstorms from Wednesday afternoon into Thursday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1220 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024 Expect MVFR ceilings to develop at the terminals during the next few hours and continue until late morning. Also, some patchy fog is possible. Expect VFR conditions to return from mid morning through the rest of the TAF forecast. Hi-Res models are indicating isolated thunderstorms along the I-10 corridor during the late afternoon and early evening, but will keep thunder out of the southern terminals for now. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 82 62 94 68 / 10 10 0 0 San Angelo 86 62 98 70 / 10 0 0 0 Junction 90 62 100 70 / 10 20 0 0 Brownwood 81 61 91 67 / 10 0 0 0 Sweetwater 82 64 95 69 / 10 0 0 0 Ozona 87 61 98 70 / 10 10 0 0 Brady 82 62 92 68 / 0 10 0 0 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...21 LONG TERM....20 AVIATION...21