Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
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815 FXUS64 KSJT 240800 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 300 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 ...New LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 200 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 An upper level trough axis is currently swinging through our area as showers and storms across the NW Hill Country continue to weaken and push east early this afternoon. Low clouds are starting to mix out with some clearing possible across the Big Country later in the afternoon. Temperatures so far have been held in the upper 60s but with some clearing expected and plenty of peak heating time left, will hold off on adjusting today`s highs for the time being. Chances for rain will continue tonight, mainly for areas south of I-20, as the cold front begins to lift back north overnight and weak shortwave impulses pass overhead. Members of the 12Z HREF continue to differ on the amount of development and time of initiation so have capped PoPs in the low-end chance category. Though northerly surface flow is decreasing available moisture across the area, pWats are forecasted to stay above 1.25 inches south of the Big Country through tomorrow afternoon. We could see some additional development tomorrow afternoon across our southeastern counties, even as the surface boundary begins to wash out, with the help of some increased upper level support. With clearing skies to the north, highs tomorrow will be warmest across the Big Country, where temperatures will climb into the upper 80s, approaching 90 degrees. Elsewhere, with increased cloud cover and rain chances, temperatures will hold in the lower to mid 80s. Lows tonight will range from the upper 50s to mid 60s. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 300 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 -Dry weather with warming temperatures No significant changes in the long term from the previous forecast. Early Wednesday, an upper level low will be moving southeast from the Midwest into the mid-south region, and will drive a cold front into the area. Models still show the potential for a few showers and thunderstorms during the morning hours Wednesday along this front, mainly south and east of a Brownwood to Sonora line, so have kept some 20% PoPs in the forecast from 12Z to 18Z Wednesday. Wednesday through early next week, models are in fairly good agreement that the aforementioned low will drift from the deep south back to the north towards the Great Lakes region as an upper level ridge remains anchored over the southwestern U. S. That will keep our area underneath northwesterly flow, and generally dry conditions will temperatures near or a few degrees above normal through early next week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1222 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Recent radar imagery, as of 520z, indicates some rain shower development is already occurring north of KSJT. Scattered rain showers and/or thunderstorms are possible across the region throughout the TAF period. An occasional brief period of MVFR ceilings are possible as place well. Expect winds to generally be light. The increased moisture and light winds should be conducive for patchy fog to develop intermittently. IFR conditions are possible where the fog develops. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 87 64 82 58 / 20 30 10 0 San Angelo 89 65 85 58 / 10 20 10 0 Junction 88 65 85 58 / 30 20 10 0 Brownwood 87 65 82 57 / 30 40 10 0 Sweetwater 88 64 82 59 / 10 10 0 0 Ozona 88 65 85 58 / 10 10 10 0 Brady 86 65 82 58 / 30 20 10 0 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...41 LONG TERM....20 AVIATION...04