Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
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035 FXUS64 KSJT 240158 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 858 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 855 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Did an update, mainly to remove rain chances before 1 AM tonight. Skies have cleared, and there is nothing indicated for any showers or thunderstorms will develop over the next few hours. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 200 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 An upper level trough axis is currently swinging through our area as showers and storms across the NW Hill Country continue to weaken and push east early this afternoon. Low clouds are starting to mix out with some clearing possible across the Big Country later in the afternoon. Temperatures so far have been held in the upper 60s but with some clearing expected and plenty of peak heating time left, will hold off on adjusting today`s highs for the time being. Chances for rain will continue tonight, mainly for areas south of I-20, as the cold front begins to lift back north overnight and weak shortwave impulses pass overhead. Members of the 12Z HREF continue to differ on the amount of development and time of initiation so have capped PoPs in the low-end chance category. Though northerly surface flow is decreasing available moisture across the area, pWats are forecasted to stay above 1.25 inches south of the Big Country through tomorrow afternoon. We could see some additional development tomorrow afternoon across our southeastern counties, even as the surface boundary begins to wash out, with the help of some increased upper level support. With clearing skies to the north, highs tomorrow will be warmest across the Big Country, where temperatures will climb into the upper 80s, approaching 90 degrees. Elsewhere, with increased cloud cover and rain chances, temperatures will hold in the lower to mid 80s. Lows tonight will range from the upper 50s to mid 60s. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Monday) Issued at 206 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Model consensus shows two prominent upper-level features will likely affect the weather pattern in west central Texas for Wednesday through the weekend. An upper-level trough looks to push a cold front into the region on Wednesday and produce some chances for showers and a few thunderstorms. This feature should move out of Texas and into the Mississippi Valley by Wednesday night. Meanwhile, a broad ridge should build in across New Mexico and west Texas. Models show that a piece of the upper trough should spin off and become a closed low over the Mid-South by Thursday and potentially spin in place through the weekend. West central Texas looks to be right in between these two features. Normally, this would lead to a dry and sunny forecast for the next five days. However, the forecast becomes a bit trickier beyond Thursday, depending the evolution and placement of the closed upper low. A strong tropical system looks to develop into a hurricane and move into the southeast US by Thursday night. After this storm moves inland, it will likely merge with the closed low over the Mid South this weekend. The big question is how much moisture from the anticipated hurricane will get wrapped into the closed low and will the closed low retrograde further west when these two systems congeal? The answers to both could lead to additional rain chances for west central Texas for late this weekend into early next week. For now, the forecast will remain dry with temperatures at or slightly above normal. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 642 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Stratus was dissipating early this evening. With a moist boundary layer in place and recent rainfall, expect a return of IFR stratus late tonight 10-12Z time frame across most terminals. If the stratus does not form, there may be areas of IFR fog. Models are a divergent, so will have the stratus returning with MVFR fog. Isolated showers, possibly a thunderstorm, possible mainly after midnight through the day Tuesday. Added VCSH to KBBD where the potential is greatest. Stratus should dissipate mid morning to noon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 61 87 63 82 / 20 20 30 10 San Angelo 65 88 65 84 / 30 20 30 10 Junction 65 87 65 85 / 20 30 30 20 Brownwood 64 86 63 82 / 30 30 30 10 Sweetwater 63 88 65 82 / 10 10 20 10 Ozona 64 86 65 85 / 20 20 20 10 Brady 65 85 64 82 / 30 30 30 20 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...50 LONG TERM....SK AVIATION...04