Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT
416 FXUS65 KSLC 242127 AFDSLC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 327 PM MDT Tue Sep 24 2024 .SYNOPSIS...High pressure will bring above normal temperatures, relatively light winds, and very low precipitation chances to the Great Basin through at least the next week. && .SHORT TERM...Water vapor satellite imagery this afternoon shows a broad area of anticyclonic circulation over the Western US, roughly centered over Utah, while visible satellite shows a nearly cloud-free view over the entire West. This all owes to a large ridge of high pressure and dry air mass beneath, which is indeed centered over Utah currently. This high will gradually transition eastward and weaken slightly as a low-amplitude trough pushes into the Pacific NW. This trough is forecasted to weaken before it reaches the Great Basin, resulting in little to no change in sensible weather for our area. With the ridging overhead and a warm air mass combined with generally clear conditions, high temperatures will continue to run 10-20 degrees above normal. The Salt Lake Airport is currently forecasted to reach 91 on Saturday and 90 on Sunday. Of note, this is only one days removed from the latest 90+ degree day on record for the site which is 9/30 (which occurred in both 2011 and 1957). The HeatRisk tool currently shows Orange (or impactful for those most sensitive to heat) for much of lower Washington County Saturday. While long nights are supportive of good temperature recovery, those with outdoor plans at lower elevations during the afternoon should be prepared for unusual late September heat. .LONG TERM...The vast consensus among members of all ensemble systems continues to be mean ridging through at least Monday. A very weak and dry cold front may bring a reduction of 2-7 degrees across mainly northern Utah Thursday afternoon. After that, the next hope any kind of pattern shift is toward the middle to end of next week, with around 15% of members showing a trough centered over the Great Basin, 40% showing a trough upstream of our area moving into the West, 20% of members showing continued ridging, and the remainder some semblance of zonal flow. && .AVIATION...KSLC...VFR conditions will persist for the KSLC terminal through the entire period. Skies will remain clear with light northerly winds transitioning to a light southerly flow overnight. .REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions will persist for the entire airspace throughout the whole period. Skies will remain clear with light and variable winds. && .FIRE WEATHER...High pressure overhead is producing a warming trend and light terrain-driven winds. The high will slowly move eastward, slightly increasing southwesterly flow and further warming and drying tomorrow. Minimum RH will fall below 15% in most valleys, with marginal recoveries in valleys and marginal to poor recoveries and mid slopes as thermal belts develop. High pressure generally persist over the next 7 days, with no precipitation chances. Winds will largely remain light and terrain-driven, with minimally enhanced winds over northern Utah early next week as a dry cold front passes. && .SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UT...None. WY...None. && $$ Van Cleave/Mahan For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit... http://weather.gov/saltlakecity