Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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152 FXUS62 KTAE 220104 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 904 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 901 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024 No major changes needed to the forecast. Some high clouds are spilling into our northern counties and increased sky cover a minor amount. Fog remains a possibility in the predawn hours along the I75 corridor and eastern Florida Big Bend. Lows will bottom out in the upper 60s to around 70 degrees. && .NEAR TERM... (Through Sunday) Issued at 153 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Dry weather will continue through the weekend with high pressure continuing to build into the region. Conditions are favorable for the development of fog overnight into Sunday morning, especially Southwest GA into portions of the FL Big Bend until around 9 AM ET. Lows tonight in the upper 60s to lower 70s and highs on Saturday in the upper 80s to lower 90s, in general a couple degrees above late September averages. && .SHORT TERM... (Sunday night through Monday night) Issued at 153 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Ridging will continue through the duration of the short term ushering in dry and pleasant conditions to kick off the week. Large scale subsidence as ridging settles in will keep skies clear with little chances for rain all day with light and variable winds out of the east. Overnight lows will be in the upper 60s to low 70s with daytime highs in the low to mid 90s. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Friday) Issued at 153 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Forecast certainty becomes quite murky as we pass midweek and becomes more uncertain as we approach the weekend. However, ridging is expected to persist through at least midweek with precipitation chances increasing gradually into the weekend as tropical moisture begins to push into the region. Additionally, an easterly surge of wind will develop as early as late Wednesday with a tightening pressure gradient perhaps resulting in advisory conditions over our waters. Similar to yesterday, guidance continues to diverge notably as we approach Thursday and move into the weekend regarding tropical development and the upper level pattern. Models indicate that a deep upper trough may form over the central united states, as was shown yesterday. This upper level pattern would be supportive of a tropical system moving north through the Gulf of Mexico, IF a system were to develop in time. Uncertainty still remains quite high regarding placement of the aforementioned trough and the exact location and time that a system *might* develop, and any change with these variables would have notable impacts regarding what could happen 7+ days from today. IF any tropical impacts were to occur, the timeframe would be late next week into the weekend. Currently, the NHC has highlighted an area with a 60% chance of tropical formation over the northwest Caribbean up to the Gulf of Mexico through the next seven days. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 732 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Overnight patchy fog remains a possibility, especially at VLD and areas along I75 into the Florida Big Bend. Otherwise, VFR conds will prevail with light north to northeast winds. && .MARINE... Issued at 153 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Generally light east-northeasterly winds will prevail through the middle of next week with calm seas generally around 1 to 2 feet, increasing to 3 to 4 feet by midweek as easterlies become more established over our waters. Rainfall chances begin to increase once again over our waters beginning Tuesday, increasing as the week continues with some showers thunderstorms possible. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 153 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Dry weather continues through early next week with minimum afternoon RH values dipping into the 40s to mid-50s away from the coast. No major concerns with fair dispersions in order over the next couple of days. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 153 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Dry conditions are expected to continue this weekend through midweek with no hydrological concerns at the moment. Currently, the CPC has above normal probabilities for precipitation for our area in their extended (8-10 day) forecast likely due to anticipated development of a tropical disturbance. As of now, it is too early to discern any hydrological impacts regarding our area given high uncertainty. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 69 91 71 92 / 0 10 0 0 Panama City 73 90 73 90 / 10 10 0 0 Dothan 70 92 71 93 / 0 10 0 0 Albany 69 92 71 92 / 10 10 0 0 Valdosta 68 91 69 92 / 0 0 0 0 Cross City 67 91 69 92 / 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 74 86 74 86 / 10 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...LF SHORT TERM...Worster LONG TERM....Worster AVIATION...Scholl MARINE...Worster FIRE WEATHER...LF HYDROLOGY...Worster