810
FXUS62 KTAE 260626
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
226 AM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024


...HELENE TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE BIG BEND COAST AS A MAJOR
HURRICANE LATER THIS EVENING...
...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1018 PM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024

Currently, showers and thunderstorms are moving in an overall
northwest direction, however the heaviest of showers/storms are
more or less stationary. We have Flash Flood Warnings ongoing from
Gulf County, FL northeast to Ben Hill County, GA with several
inches of rain having already fallen. This activity is not truly
associated with Hurricane Helene but from a cold front moving
through the region.

Hurricane Helene will begin impacting the region tomorrow
(Thursday) with conditions starting to deteoriate by mid-Thursday
morning. There is still time to prepare but should completed by
tomorrow morning.

Current weather updates include showing an increase in PoPs for
tonight with the ongoing showers and updating temperatures for
current conditions.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Thursday night)
Issued at 332 PM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024

A cold front, slowly moving across the region today, will induce
some showers and storms across the region through this evening.
The upper-level trough associated with this cold front will help
slingshot a tropical cyclone north across the region tomorrow.

All eyes then turn to Hurricane Helene. Helene is currently just
offshore, to the northeast of the Yucatan Peninsula and has been
improving its structure over the last few hours with a ragged eye
trying to take shape. Helene is expected to continue intensifying
while also expanding the size of its wind field. It is likely
that Helene will make landfall along the Florida Big Bend coast
tomorrow as a powerful Major Hurricane. Just before landfall,
Helene`s 34-knot (tropical storm force) wind field is expected to
extend 200-250 miles to the north and east from the center, and
around 110 miles to the south and west of the center. This large
wind field will allow for hours of continuous strong onshore wind
to contribute to high storm surge. This is a reminder that threats
associated with Hurricanes/Tropical systems extend far beyond the
center, and well outside the forecast cone.

Storm Surge: The most dangerous hazard associated with
Hurricanes. There is increasing confidence of Catastrophic and/or
potentially Unsurvivable storm surge for Apalachee Bay. Storm
surge may begin to arrive as early as late Wednesday night ahead
of the strongest winds, building through landfall. Current storm
surge values across the Bay are: Carrabelle to Suwannee River, 15
to 20 feet. Apalachicola to Carrabelle, 10 to 15 feet. Indian
Pass to Apalachicola, 6 to 10 feet. Mexico Beach to Indian Pass,
3 to 5 feet. Rest of Bay county, 1 to 3 feet.

REMINDER: storm surge DOES NOT include wave action, when
including waves on top of storm surge inundation, these values
could be higher, potentially allowing for greater inland
penetration. The threat to life is significant.

Winds: While exact impacts will be heavily dependent on the
eventual track, expect Catastrophic wind damage near the eventual
landfall point and inland along the track. Widespread and
prolonged power outages, damage to critical infrastructure,
Catastrophic damage to trees and powerlines, widespread
inaccessibility due to blocked roads, and damage to well-built
structures will all be possible, particularly close to and east of
the track. Power outages will likely last days, if not weeks,
near where it makes landfall. Due to the quick forward speed of
Helene, significant wind damage may extend well into Georgia.

Flooding Rain: Widespread heavy rainfall is forecast with this
system and will likely lead to both flash flooding and riverine
flooding. Heavy rainfall is possible ahead of Helene today, perhaps
enhancing the overall flooding threat on Thursday as Helene moves
through the area. Even though the hurricane is forecast to be moving
quickly, very high rainfall rates and already saturated soils in some
places will still combine for a serious flood risk across the region.
Be prepared for flash flooding and quickly rising rivers and streams.
A Flood Watch is in effect for the entire area. The WPC currently
has most of the region within a Moderate Risk of Excessive
Rainfall (level 3 of 4) and a High Risk of Excessive Rainfall
(level 4 of 4) near where Helene eventually makes landfall.

Tornadoes: While not the highest threat with this system, several
tornadoes will be possible, generally along the east of the
eventual track.

PLEASE heed all local evacuation orders by your local officials,
Helene has the potential to become a generational storm and the
threat it poses is significant to life and property. Every attempt
should be made to finish all preparations by sunset tonight as
tropical storm force winds begin to impact the region tomorrow
morning.

&&

.SHORT AND LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 332 PM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024

Helene will be pulling away quickly through central and northern
Georgia Friday morning. A shower or two may linger Friday morning,
but most of the region should be on the drier side of Helene as it
pulls away. Speaking of drier air, it will advect in on the backside
of Helene and lead to drier conditions to end the work week and
Saturday. The H5 low responsible for pulling Helene up through our
area will finally be on the move Saturday night into Sunday and may
help spark an isolated shower, maybe a thunderstorm, to close out
the weekend. Isolated shower and thunderstorm chances remain
possible early next week as the H5 low moseys through and drags a
weak cold front through the area.

Temperatures will generally be in the upper 80s for highs and the
upper 60s to lower 70s for lows each day.


&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 219 AM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

Mainly IFR conditions are expected through the rest of the night
and through day today due to low cigs. The outer rainbands from
Hurricane Helene will begin impacting the terminals later this
morning, with restrictions in cigs/vsbys due to RA/+RA, possibly
to LIFR. Easterly winds will increase at all terminals during the
morning with gusts around 25 knots. As Hurricane Helene approaches
this evening, easterly wind gusts around 40 to 50 knots are
expected at the terminals. Hurricane Helene will make its closest
approach to the terminals at the end of the TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 332 PM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024

At 11 am EDT Tuesday, the center of Hurricane Helene was located off
the northeastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Helene will move
northward across the eastern Gulf on Wednesday and Thursday, rapidly
strengthening to a major hurricane before making landfall along the
Big Bend Coast late Thursday. Helene will quickly move inland on
Friday, so conditions will improve over the waters. Gentle to
moderate southwest breezes will prevail this weekend, as a large
area of low pressure spins over the Lower Mississippi Valley.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 332 PM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024

Helene is expected to make landfall as a major hurricane along
the Big Bend coast late Thursday. Heavy, flooding rain will begin
as soon as tonight, well in advance of the center of Helene.
Tree damage will be most widespread in the right eyewall of the
hurricane. The fast forward speed of the hurricane will spread
damaging winds further inland than your typical hurricane, posing
the risk of tree damage well north into our Georgia districts on
Thursday night. Preparations for Helene should be completed
today. Weather conditions will improve going into the weekend.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 332 PM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024

Primary focus continues to be on the approach of Hurricane Helene to
the region. The system has the potential to bring significant rain
to the region, even accounting for its fast forward motion as it
nears the Florida Big Bend. Model guidance has been in good
agreement that a precursor event of heavy rainfall will overspread
the Florida Big Bend and Panhandle this afternoon and tonight with
the bulk of the rainfall arriving later on Thursday. A slight risk
for flash flooding (level 2 out of 4) through tonight exists in the
western Florida Big Bend with a marginal risk (level 1 of 4) in all
other areas of the CWA.

There is now a High Risk (level 4 out of 4) for flash flooding
across much of the Florida Big Bend, eastern Florida Panhandle, and
the southwestern portion of Georgia for Thursday into Thursday night
due to the passage of Hurricane Helene. The rest of the forecast
area is included in a Moderate risk for flash flooding (level 3 out
of 4) for Thursday. Rainfall amounts across most of the region
totaling 5 to 10 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals
approaching 10 to 15 inches are forecast through early Friday. These
amounts will lead to considerable urban flash flooding along with
the potential for moderate flooding, especially on the Ochlockonee
River Basin. Depending on where the heaviest rains are distributed
inland, it is entirely possible that other river basins could
experience moderate riverine flooding in the days ahead.

For storm surge information, please refer to the latest information
from the National Hurricane Center. This is an extremely dangerous
storm surge threat in the Apalachee Bay. Storm Surge around
Apalachee Bay will not just merely be a coastal event in this
system, but will spread many miles inland. If ordered to evacuate,
heed the advice of local emergency managers -it could save your
life!

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   79  70  84  68 / 100  90  10   0
Panama City   78  72  83  74 / 100  60  10   0
Dothan        76  66  80  65 / 100  80  10   0
Albany        78  69  81  66 / 100 100  10   0
Valdosta      81  73  85  68 / 100  90  10   0
Cross City    84  75  87  74 / 100  80  20  10
Apalachicola  80  74  83  74 / 100  70  10  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flood Watch through Friday morning for FLZ007>019-026>029-034-
     108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134.

     Tropical Storm Warning for FLZ007>010-012-108-112.

     Hurricane Warning for FLZ011-013>019-026>029-034-114-115-118-127-
     128-134.

     Storm Surge Warning for FLZ027-114-115-118-127-128-134.

     High Rip Current Risk through Saturday evening for FLZ108-112-
     114-115.

GA...Flood Watch through Friday morning for GAZ120>131-142>148-
     155>161.

     Hurricane Warning for GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161.

AL...Flood Watch through Friday morning for ALZ065>069.

     Tropical Storm Warning for ALZ065-066-068.

     Hurricane Warning for ALZ067-069.

GM...Tropical Storm Warning for GMZ750-770.

     Hurricane Warning for GMZ730-752-755-765-772-775.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Oliver
SHORT TERM...Oliver
LONG TERM....Reese
AVIATION...LF
MARINE...Reese
FIRE WEATHER...Oliver
HYDROLOGY...Reese