606
FXUS62 KTAE 261949
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
349 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Friday)
Issued at 318 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

Hurricane Helene is now a major hurricane with maximum sustained
winds of 120 mph. Helene is still forecast to make landfall along
the Florida Big Bend as a major hurricane this evening and inflict
catastrophic damage to the area. For the latest on Hurricane
Helene and its local impacts, please see the latest Hurricane
Local Statement.

&&

.SHORT TERM & LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 318 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

Generally warm and mostly dry conditions are expected through the
next week after Helene exits the region. A stalled front to the
southeast may allow for a few showers and storms across the waters
and far southeastern portions of the area, but even then coverage
is expected to be fairly sparse. Next week another cold front is
forecast to push through the area, prolonging the warm and dry
conditions even longer. Highs are generally forecast in the 80s to
near 90, with lows in the mid 60s to low 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 219 AM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

Mainly IFR conditions are expected through the rest of the night
and through day today due to low cigs. The outer rainbands from
Hurricane Helene will begin impacting the terminals later this
morning, with restrictions in cigs/vsbys due to RA/+RA, possibly
to LIFR. Easterly winds will increase at all terminals during the
morning with gusts around 25 knots. As Hurricane Helene approaches
this evening, easterly wind gusts around 40 to 50 knots are
expected at the terminals. Hurricane Helene will make its closest
approach to the terminals at the end of the TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 318 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

At 11 AM EDT Thursday, the center of Hurricane Helene was located
about 330 miles south-southwest of Saint Marks Florida, over the
southeast Gulf. Helene will move north-northeast across the
eastern Gulf today, rapidly strengthening to a major hurricane
before making landfall along the Big Bend Coast this evening.
Helene will quickly move inland on Friday, so conditions will
improve over the waters. Gentle to moderate southwest to westerly
breezes will prevail this weekend, as a large area of low pressure
spins over the Lower Mississippi Valley.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 318 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024


Hurricane Helene is forecast to push through the region later today
and tonight, bringing widespread damaging winds and heavy rainfall.
In the wake of Helene, drier conditions are expected Friday through
the weekend. However, high dispersions are expected as breezy
transport winds remain over the region.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 318 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

Widespread flash flooding will be possible today and tonight as
Hurricane Helene pushes through the area. There is a High Risk for
excessive rainfall from WPC, and a Flood Watch is in effect. Flash
flooding is already ongoing from pre-event rainfall across the FL
Panhandle. Already saturated areas will be even more susceptible
to flooding from the extreme rainfall rates expected with
Hurricane Helene.

Rapid rises on area rivers are expected with Hurricane Helene as
well, and some rivers and streams are already well on their way to
minor or moderate flood stage with recent rainfall and forecast
rainfall from Helene. Event rainfall totals could reach as high as
15 to 18 inches in some areas. If realized, these totals would
create catastrophic flooding.

If you live in a flood-prone area, there are still a couple of
hours left to move to higher ground. Of course, if you are under
an evacuation order please follow the advice of local officials.
Once tropical storm conditions begin later this afternoon and
evening, it will quickly become unsafe to be on the roads.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is requested. Spotters should safely report
significant weather conditions and/or damage by calling the
office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   69  84  69  86 / 100  10   0   0
Panama City   71  83  74  86 /  80   0   0   0
Dothan        65  81  65  84 / 100  20   0   0
Albany        68  81  66  84 / 100  30   0   0
Valdosta      71  85  67  86 / 100  20   0   0
Cross City    76  87  74  87 / 100  10   0   0
Apalachicola  74  83  75  84 /  90   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flood Watch through Friday morning for FLZ007>019-026>029-034-
     108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134.

     Tropical Storm Warning for FLZ007>010-012-108-112.

     Hurricane Warning for FLZ011-013>019-026>029-034-114-115-118-127-
     128-134.

     Storm Surge Warning for FLZ027-114-115-118-127-128-134.

     High Rip Current Risk through Saturday evening for FLZ108-112-
     114-115.

GA...Flood Watch through Friday morning for GAZ120>131-142>148-
     155>161.

     Hurricane Warning for GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161.

AL...Flood Watch through Friday morning for ALZ065>069.

     Tropical Storm Warning for ALZ065-066-068.

     Hurricane Warning for ALZ067-069.

GM...Tropical Storm Warning for GMZ750-770.

     Hurricane Warning for GMZ730-752-755-765-772-775.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Merrifield
SHORT TERM...Merrifield
LONG TERM....Merrifield
AVIATION...HGX
MARINE...Merrifield
FIRE WEATHER...Merrifield
HYDROLOGY...Merrifield