Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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605 FXUS62 KTAE 232308 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 708 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024 ...POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE LIKELY TO BRING MULTIPLE IMPACTS TO OUR AREA LATER THIS WEEK... ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 314 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine is likely to bring multiple impacts to our forecast area later this week. Residents should prepare for significant, life-threatening storm surge; strong, damaging winds; heavy rain and localized flash and river flooding; and dangerous beach conditions. Use today and Tuesday to complete your hurricane preparations. Take time to learn what your evacuation zone is and review your hurricane plans. && .NEAR TERM... (Through Tuesday) Issued at 314 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Ridging aloft will persist through the near term yielding warm and dry conditions once again tomorrow afternoon. Some more upper level moisture may stream in from the east bringing clouds to the region as troughing over the Carolinas occurs. Daytime highs will be in the low 90s with overnight lows in the low to mid 70s. && .SHORT & LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 314 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024 To start the period, increasingly strengthening southeasterly flow will develop ahead of Potential Tropical Cyclone 9 (PTC9) as it treks north toward the area with rain chances gradually increasing each day through Thursday. Heads immediately turn to late Wednesday night into Thursday where tropical impacts along the Florida Panhandle and/or Big Bend appear increasingly likely. Conditions will begin to deteriorate Wednesday evening becoming worse as Thursday continues. There does still remain some uncertainty as we have seen a notable shift with the ensemble guidance regarding this storm. The difference is due to the initial positioning of the dominant low center within the Central American Gyre (CAG) perhaps forming more east than models initially resolved. Another contributing factor is an upper trough that forms a cutoff low where yesterday`s guidance had this upper cutoff low meandering around eastern Oklahoma and retrogressing quickly. Today`s guidance now has it meandering around eastern AR / western TN and slowly retrogressing toward the ArkLaTex region, resulting in an eastern shift with some of the guidance. Much can still change, though significant impacts across portions of our Florida counties appear increasingly likely. Strong winds, heavy rain, and significant life-threatening storm surge appears possible with this storm across a large area given the size of this storm could be quite big. The forecast should become more refined come tomorrow. By now, residents should have already begun their hurricane preparations. If not, be sure to check your hurricane kits and make sure that all supplies are fully stocked and/or refreshed. More preparedness information can be found by visiting ready.gov/hurricanes and floridadisaster.org. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 707 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024 VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours with light and variable winds. && .MARINE... Issued at 314 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Light to gentle breezes out of the east-southeast will persist through early Wednesday before moderate east-southeast surges develop over our waters ahead of Potential Tropical Cyclone 9 (PTC9). Attention then turns toward PTC9 potentially impacting our waters as it lifts north, though some uncertainty remains regarding its track. Nevertheless, at least advisory or tropical storm conditions appear increasingly likely over our waters beginning Wednesday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 314 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Conditions are forecast to remain warm and dry through Wednesday. Rain chances are expected to ramp up once again come Wednesday evening as a tropical system is expected to push north through the area. Fire weather concerns remain low at this time. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 314 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Primary focus over the next 72-96 hours will be the approach and impact from potential tropical cyclone nine. The tropical system is expected to be a quick mover, but the combination of rainfall ahead of the storm and then along the track of the storm will likely result in 3-6 inches of rain with isolated heavier amounts up to 10 inches. Because the vast majority of the rain will fall in a very short window of time, flash flooding will be the biggest concern, some of which could be considerable near the core of the storm. For that reason the excessive rainfall outlook for Thursday, as the system affects the region, has been increased to a moderate risk, or level 3 of 4, which is both indicative of the threat as well as the confidence at this time range. Some models are suggesting widespread heavy rainfall covering most or all of our river basins, moving from south to north, and this could lead to at least minor riverine flooding at many forecast points. In areas that exceed 6-8 inches of rain, moderate riverine flooding would be possible. As a reminder, river forecasts only include the next 48 hours of rainfall, so it will be until Wednesday afternoon until all of the rainfall associated with this system is included in our riverine forecasts. A flood watch will likely be needed by Tuesday afternoon or early Wednesday morning for much of the region. We are also looking at a potentially significant and major coastal flood threat from storm surge given the forecast with this system in Apalachee Bay. Apalachee Bay is especially sensitive to surge and small variations in track, intensity, and forward speed can cause major adjustments to the surge impacts. Nevertheless, at this point, confidence is increasing of a significant and major coastal flood impact in Apalachee Bay in association with this system. As we get closer to landfall, we`ll have more detail on specific surge values. Pay close attention to the advice of emergency management about any evacuation orders that are issued. Remember, storm surge is especially dangerous and destructive. If ordered to evacuate, heed the advice of emergency officials. Doing so can save your life! && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 93 72 91 73 / 0 0 0 10 Panama City 90 73 90 74 / 0 0 20 30 Dothan 94 71 92 71 / 0 0 10 20 Albany 94 72 92 72 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 93 70 92 72 / 0 0 0 0 Cross City 93 69 93 73 / 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 88 75 85 77 / 0 0 20 20 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...Worster SHORT TERM...Worster LONG TERM....Worster AVIATION...Young MARINE...Worster FIRE WEATHER...Worster HYDROLOGY...Godsey