864
FXUS65 KTFX 270527
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
1126 PM MDT Thu Sep 26 2024

...Aviation Section Updated...

.SYNOPSIS...

Breezy conditions and mild temperatures will continue through the
rest of today with warmer conditions expected over the weekend. The
next cool down is expected later in the weekend into early next week
with a slight chance for showers and more breezy to windy conditions
for Sunday and Monday.

&&

.UPDATE...

No major updates were needed to the forecast as the previous
forecast remains on track. -Wilson

&&

.AVIATION...
27/06Z TAF Period

VFR conditions will prevail across all terminals in Southwest
through North Central Montana over the next 24 hours; however,
strong zonal flow will bring breezy and gusty surface winds to the
plains of Central and North Central Montana from the late morning
through early evening hours on Friday. Additionally, the strong
zonal flow will bring the potential for mountain wave activity and
instance of low level wind shear downstream of the Continental
Divide. Mountains will remain unobscured throughout the duration of
the 2706/2806 TAF period.

Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation
weather and hazard information.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 530 PM MDT Thu Sep 26 2024/

Key Points:

 -Breezy conditions will continue through the rest of the day
  across north-central and central Montana.

 -Above normal temperatures and dry conditions will continue
  through the weekend before a cold front arrives early next week.

 -Near normal to slightly above normal temperatures will continue
  through the rest of next week.

Breezy conditions will continue across north-central and central
Montana through the rest of today with winds tapering off after
sunset. While isolated stronger gusts are still possible along the
Rocky Mountain Front, overall, the threat for high wind has
diminished enough to cancel the high wind warning.

Weak ridging builds over the intermountain west through much of the
weekend, keeping temperatures above normal with generally dry
conditions across the region. Sunday into Monday, a trough moves
across northern Montana and southern AB/SK bringing cooler
temperatures and a less than 30% chance for showers for portions of
the Rocky Mountain Front and the Hi-Line. Behind the trough,
ensembles generally favor quasi-zonal flow with west to
southwesterly flow aloft. A couple shortwave disturbances are
expected early next week although there are still differences among
ensemble members in regards to the timing. Overall, this looks to
result in temperatures oscillating from near average to above
average and back again, along with periods of breezy conditions.
Beyond that, CPC guidance continues to favor chances for above
normal temperatures and below normal precipitation through at least
the first week in October. -thor

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  50  81  47  81 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  46  73  40  75 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  48  81  49  85 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  43  81  44  85 /   0   0   0   0
WYS  33  73  33  77 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  43  79  43  83 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  45  81  45  82 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  45  79  48  81 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls