Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
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641 FXUS63 KTOP 241934 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 234 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms possible late this afternoon and early evening. - Mild temperatures with highs in 70s and lows in the 50s. - Precipitation less likely for this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 211 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 A compact, fast-moving upper-level wave is quickly diving southeast across Iowa and Missouri. Cloud cover has quickly cleared across most of the area early this afternoon. This has allowed temperatures to rise quickly into the 70s. These warmer surface temperatures will combine with rather cool temperatures aloft to create an unstable atmospheric profile with steep lapse rates and several hundred joules of CAPE. A cumulus field is already developing in far southeast Nebraska. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible (20-40%) this afternoon and evening across eastern Kansas. Given the aforementioned parameters, some robust thunderstorms with brief gusty winds and small hail are possible (10-20%) before sunset. Once the sun sets we will quickly stabilize and any ongoing thunderstorms should quickly weaken. After this wave exits the area surface high pressure will build in and a quiet and cool night will be in store with lows in the upper 40s to low 50s. The rest of the week looks dry and mild with highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s. The track of the tropical system that is anticipated to swing into the Midwest later this weekend has shifted further and further east with each model run. Most models have all the moisture associated with this system off to our east now. Some ensemble runs have low chances of precipitation for our far eastern counties this weekend, but these probabilities will likely continue to decrease over the next several runs given the latest trends. Overall, we are in for a very nice stretch of weather! && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 211 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 VFR at all TAF sites through the TAF period. Some scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon and evening across eastern Kansas. The Topeka terminals have the best chance at seeing any precipitation today, but due to the scattered nature of activity, will hold of on the mention of thunder in the TAF until confidence is higher. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Jones AVIATION...Jones