Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
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555 FXUS63 KTOP 271702 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 1202 PM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry weather continues with near to slightly above normal temperatures into next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 241 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 A mid-level closed low continues to meander across the mid/lower Mississippi Valley this morning with Hurricane Helene moving north across Georgia. An upper-level ridge currently extending from the southwest CONUS towards the Great Lakes will be nudged westward through the day as Helene merges with the closed low. The forecast area remains sandwiched in between the western ridge and eastern closed low with little change to the overall airmass expected through the weekend. The only notable change will be increased mid and high clouds Friday and Saturday, although all the precipitation from this system will remain to our east. A persistence forecast reigns supreme with highs in the 80s through the weekend. The closed upper low finally makes eastward progression on Monday, allowing the ridge to build overhead and southerly low-level flow to return. This will lead to Monday being the warmest day of the next week with highs in the mid 80s to near 90 degrees. A shortwave diving southeast across the northern CONUS into the Great Lakes will shunt a cold front through the area late Monday into Tuesday. Frontal passage is expected to be dry given a lack of moisture, but temperatures will be knocked down 10-20 degrees on Tuesday. The cool down is short-lived as southerly flow returns on Wednesday and temperatures rise back into the 80s for Wednesday and Thursday. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1202 PM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 VFR conditions are expected through the period. Winds northerly around 10kts, becoming light northwest after 23Z. North winds increase to around 10kts after 15Z Saturday. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Flanagan AVIATION...53