Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
486 FXUS63 KTOP 240704 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 204 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Early morning patchy fog mainly over far east central into far northeastern Kansas areas - worst will be around sunrise. - Isolated to scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms possible for this afternoon. - Fall temperatures in place this week. - Uncertain rain chances into the weekend in association with a tropical storm system mainly just ESE of the area. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 202 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Currently, WV and UA pattern suggest a mid to upper level trough continues to work east of the area. Another elongated vort lobe is working through the northern Plains into the central Plains with a broad western ridge in place with anticyclonic flow over the Pacific northwest region. A weak surface front is currently situated north of the area into southern SD and northern NE poised to gradually work into the area around midday into the this afternoon. Early this morning, fog has formed over southeastern KS into east central and far northeastern areas. Expecting fog this morning to remain patchy but could briefly become dense over some of the low lying areas near rivers and lakes. The overall moisture profile over the area suggests only shallow saturation will setup through sunrise. With high clouds working into the are from the northwest in association with an upper trough, do expect that widespread fog formation would be difficult to support. Later this morning into the early afternoon, isolated to scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms will be possible (20-30% chance) across much of northeastern into east central areas as a weak cold front and upper trough work through the area. An elongated vort lobe works into the area by this afternoon. As midlevel frontogenetical forcing increases, could support light to moderate showers over the area with embedded thunderstorms due to instability in the midlevels. Expect these showers and storms to remain fairly high based with several thousand feet of subcloud dry air in place. This may act to increase downdraft winds at times but not expecting anything to be severe. This works through by early evening. A fall pattern remains in place keeping highs in the 70s and lows into the 50s for the forecast period as no major baroclinic systems appear to impact the region. Uncertainty remains with a couple tropical systems that do appear to work into the lower MS Valley and southeastern CONUS. The general trends suggest the forecast area remains on the western periphery of any tropical systems Friday through the weekend. Therefore, rain chances may be in the forecast for eastern zones but not anticipating anything more than light amounts of precipitation and around 20-30% POPs at this time. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1227 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Maintaining a VFR forecast for now. Mid to high clouds continue move toward the area associated with an upper level system to the northwest of the area. Current timing of the high clouds should limit fog potential to the ESE of the terminals. Could still see some ground fog near sunrise. The weak surface front arrives around midday into the afternoon with a slight veering of the winds taking place. Could see a isolated to scattered SHRA or embedded TS by the afternoon period. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Drake AVIATION...Drake