Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
072 FXUS64 KTSA 231557 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1057 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 ...New SHORT TERM... .SHORT TERM... (The rest of today) Issued at 1057 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Scattered showers continue to develop and stream in from the southwest across the forecast area this morning as an upper-level trough works its way eastward across the Plains. Visible satellite imagery shows thick stratus clouds blanketing the region ahead of the upper-level trough axis. Current temperatures range from near 60 degrees along the OK/KS border to near 70 degrees in far southeast OK and west-central AR. As diurnal heating progresses and more mixing gets going into this afternoon, clouds should lift some and instability is expected to increase slightly, particularly across far southeast OK and into northwest AR. Additional showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms are likely to develop this afternoon, highest chances across far eastern OK and northwest AR. Unseasonably cool temperatures will persist today, with highs reaching the low-mid 70s for most locations. Cloud cover and precipitation should clear west-to-east this afternoon as the upper trough axis approaches. Made some minor adjustments to temperatures, increasing them a degree or two along and west of Highway 75 in OK as cloud cover should become more broken to scattered by mid-late afternoon. Further adjustments to temperatures may be needed if cloud cover is able to break apart quicker. Also made a few adjustments to the PoPs/Wx through this afternoon, lowering the chance of thunder from the earlier forecast. Mejia && .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Sunday) Issued at 242 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 With clouds and precipitation clearing the area, temperatures will cool significantly into Tuesday morning. Low temperatures will range from the low 50s in the northwest to near 60 in the southeast. Temperatures will rebound during the day Tuesday, but with another upper level low diving into the region, any break in storm activity will be short lived. Rain chances will increase Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning, though totals will mostly be minimal. There has been considerable uncertainty the last several days with regards to the pattern during the late week period and onwards due to large variation in how models handle this upper level low (as well as the possible entrainment of tropical moisture). Although the specifics are still not known, the general picture is becoming a bit more clear. For Wednesday through Thursday the upper level low will hang out somewhere east of the area. Some guidance such as the latest ECMWF keeps the upper level low over AR, while other guidance such as the GFS or CMC are a bit further east. In either case the upper level low is expected to then retrograde westwards towards the area Friday-Saturday bringing increased rain and thunder chances. Ensemble cluster analysis suggests that the most likely outcome (50- 60 % chance) is for the upper level low to remain relatively closer to the forecast area. The EPS mean shows this as a rather anomalous pattern with unusually low surface pressure and mid level heights for this time of year as well as anomalously strong mid level east to northeast flow around the low pressure area. Additionally, moisture levels will be above the 90th percentile. This pattern would increase the probability for areas of moderate to possibly heavy rainfall next Friday-Saturday. Pops and forecast precipitation were increased for this time frame. With the upper level low hanging over or near the area through next weekend, temperatures will remain near to below normal with at least a slight chance of rain each day. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 610 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Showers and scattered storms have been slow to expand in wake of the slow moving cold front, however guidance continues to indicate this potential through at least mid morning. A ongoing mix of VFR to IFR ceilings across the forecast sites should become a more widespread prevailing low MVFR to IFR cloud deck through much of the day. Ceilings rise and/or skies clear this evening with patchy fog possible. Currently far NW AR terminals show the higher chance of patchy dense fog and forecast will trend that direction. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 71 58 78 57 / 50 10 10 40 FSM 80 63 83 61 / 70 10 10 40 MLC 75 58 85 58 / 60 0 10 50 BVO 72 52 78 52 / 50 10 20 20 FYV 76 58 78 55 / 80 20 10 30 BYV 76 59 76 55 / 90 30 10 30 MKO 73 56 79 57 / 40 10 10 40 MIO 70 56 76 53 / 70 20 10 20 F10 72 55 81 55 / 50 0 10 40 HHW 80 60 86 60 / 60 10 10 40 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...67 LONG TERM....06 AVIATION...07