944
FXUS64 KTSA 211730
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1230 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of today )
Issued at 1043 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024

Warm and breezy conditions ongoing with low level moisture
increasing ahead of the cold front which was currently located
from central KS through SW OK. Substantial capping noted on
regional 12z soundings and will likely remain firmly in place
through mid afternoon before height falls begin to spread across
the prefrontal region. Trends in recent CAM solutions have
decreased potential for prefrontal convection which is more often
the case and updated forecast will focus thunderstorm chances more
into the late afternoon hours. Focus will quickly become storms
along the frontal boundary from E KS into NE OK moving east and
developing southward with time. An additional area for convection
could be over N TX nearer the dryline / front intersection and
these storms would also track eastward with time. Warm sector
conditions will support severe weather with initial supercells
capable of very large hail and damaging winds. Low level wind
fields do increase by evening supporting tornadic potential though
storm model should become more linear with time which will
complicate the duration and extent of the overall tornadic threat.
Updated forecast primarily may minor adjustments to precip
chances through the evening.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 401 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024

Shower and thunderstorm activity will remain possible this evening
into the overnight hours along the cold front as it sags south.
The greatest convective coverage is likely to remain across far
northeast Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas. At least some severe
weather threat is likely to persist well into the overnight
hours.

The front will eventually stall out Wednesday somewhere in the
vicinity of the Red River. Widespread convective activity is
expected in its vicinity, with some severe threat. A flood threat
may eventually develop with time across mainly southeast Oklahoma
due to repeated rounds of convection. To the north, more scattered
elevated convection with a hail threat will be possible.

The front will lift north/wash out Thursday as an upper wave
approaches the area triggering another round of showers and
thunderstorms. Another weak frontal boundary will move across the
area following the passage of this upper wave, which may give much
of the area a break from precipitation Friday.

Another upper wave is expected to traverse the area over the
weekend bringing additional shower and storm chances. Right now,
it looks like Saturday night may be the most favored time frame
for precipitation over the weekend. Another cold front will follow
this wave Sunday, with a second reinforcing front possibly
arriving Monday night. A pattern change is then likely to develop
next week bringing a respite to the daily storm chances.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

Corridor of low VFR to periodic MVFR ceilings will remain across E
OK / NW AR terminals this afternoon with isolated to scattered
showers and storms. Thunderstorm chances increase from late
afternoon through the evening as a cold front moves slowly
southward into the region. Periodic flight impacts are likely for
NW AR terminals with slightly lesser chances further west.
Lower ceilings develop again overnight along with a chance for
thunderstorm redevelop in vicinity of the slow moving cold front.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   89  62  76  63 /  20  30  40  40
FSM   89  69  80  66 /  20  70  70  70
MLC   87  67  77  65 /  20  30  80  70
BVO   89  59  76  58 /  20  20  40  30
FYV   86  65  77  61 /  20  70  80  70
BYV   87  63  74  61 /  20  70  70  60
MKO   87  65  75  64 /  20  50  70  60
MIO   86  57  74  61 /  40  40  50  40
F10   87  63  75  63 /  20  30  70  60
HHW   87  70  80  66 /  20  30  80  70

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...07