090
FXUS64 KTSA 221124
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
624 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 401 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024

Shower and thunderstorm development is expected to commence
between now and daybreak, with roughly the Interstate 40 corridor
being the most likely area for initial development near a
southward moving frontal boundary in that vicinity. Storms will
spread both north and south of the front with time, and at least a
marginal severe weather threat will exist with this early day
activity.

Storm intensities may ramp up by afternoon near or just north of
the frontal boundary from southeast Oklahoma into western
Arkansas. Hail will be the main severe weather threat north of the
boundary, while all hazards will be possible near the Red River
in the vicinity of the surface front. Locally heavy rainfall will
also be possible, with the current flood watch remaining valid.

Temperatures will be cooler today, with afternoon highs ranging
from the mid 70s to lower 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 401 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024

Shower and storm chances will be greatest tonight across southeast
Oklahoma, but if convection today forces the surface boundary too
far south, coverage and intensity of storms tonight may end up
being less than forecast. The frontal boundary starts to return
north and wash out Thursday as an upper wave approaches from the
west. This will result in another round of showers and storms
Thursday afternoon and evening, with southern and eastern areas
once again favored for greatest storm coverage and heaviest rain
amounts.

A relative lull in convection is expected Friday into Saturday
afternoon before storm chances ramp up again late Saturday and
Saturday night as another upper wave moves across the area. A cold
front will follow the passage of this system, with drier weather
returning Sunday into next week as the upper level pattern changes
to a more northwest flow. There is still some uncertainty as to
whether we will be completely dry early next week, so just rode
with the NBM pops for now which keeps most of the area dry.
Temperatures through this period look to be near the seasonal
averages for late May.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 619 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024

Scattered thunderstorms continue to develop generally north of
I-40 in eastern OK. Storms are expected to continue gradually
expanding south and east through the morning, with areas of MVFr
conditions and locally IFR within strong cells. Should see a break
early this afternoon before additional strong storms develop from
NW AR into SE OK mid to late afternoon. Overall MVFR conditions
are expected to be more widespread by this evening with
additional rounds of showers and storms possible, mainly SE of
I-44.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   77  63  82  68 /  60  30  50  40
FSM   80  66  83  69 /  90  50  50  60
MLC   78  65  82  68 /  90  70  60  50
BVO   77  59  82  65 /  40  10  40  40
FYV   76  62  80  64 /  80  50  50  60
BYV   75  62  80  65 /  60  50  50  60
MKO   75  63  81  66 /  90  50  50  50
MIO   75  61  81  65 /  60  20  40  50
F10   74  63  81  67 /  80  40  60  50
HHW   82  66  82  68 /  80  80  60  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through Thursday evening for OKZ049-053-072>076.

AR...Flood Watch through Thursday evening for ARZ019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...14