685
FXUS65 KTWC 260901
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
201 AM MST Thu Sep 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Well above normal temperatures are expected through the coming
weekend. The hottest days are expected to be Friday and Saturday
when an Excessive Heat Warning is in effect from Tucson westward.


&&

.DISCUSSION...

An anomalous high pressure center is currently located over
eastern Arizona/ western New Mexico and is expected to persist in
the region for, at least, the next several days. This will lead
to near-record and possibly record high temperatures that are 7 to
15 degrees above normal. The hottest days will be Friday and
Saturday with forecast highs in Tucson being 106 and 107 degrees,
respectfully. Area wide, high temperatures will be between 100 to
111 degrees. Since there is little overnight recovery, HeatRisk is
forecast to be Major to locally Extreme; meaning that this level
of heat will impact anyone without effective cooling and/or
adequate hydration. The Excessive Heat Warning is still in effect
for areas Tucson westward for Friday afternoon through Saturday
afternoon. Other than extreme heat, today will be mostly clear
skies with some scattered mid-level clouds and winds around 5 to
10 mph with gusts to 15 mph from the southeast.

&&

.AVIATION... Valid through 27/12Z.

FEW clouds focused east of KTUS at 9k-12k feet through 26/18Z
becoming more widespread and FEW-SCT by 26/22Z. Clouds will
dissipate by 27/05Z becoming SKC for the remainder of the
forecast period. Surface winds will be from the southeast at 5 to
10 kts with gusts to 15 kts until 26/23Z becoming light, 5 kts or
less, and variable for the remainder of the forecast period. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Dry conditions and hot temperatures this week. Temperatures will
be 7 to 14 degrees above normal through Today, peaking at 10 to
15 degrees above normal Friday and Saturday. 20- foot winds east
to southeast around 10 mph today from Tucson eastward with a few
higher gusts. Otherwise, 20-foot winds generally less than 10 mph
with an easterly component through the weekend. Min relative
humidities will be in the teens for the lower elevations and the
middle 20s for the higher elevations.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES NEXT 3 DAYS

DATE                         Sep 26           Sep 27           Sep 28
                          FCST RCD/YR      FCST RCD/YR      FCST RCD/YR
TUCSON INTL AIRPORT       105 104/2023     107 103/2023     106 103/1994
AJO                       106 106/2023     110 106/1960     111 106/2020
KITT PEAK                  87  85/1979      90  84/2005      91  84/2009
ORGAN PIPE CACTUS         105 107/1956     109 107/1994     110 107/1992
PICACHO PEAK              104 106/2020     106 105/2022     108 104/2009
SAFFORD AG STATION        100  99/2020     102 100/2005     101 100/2005
SIERRA VISTA FD            95  95/2020      96  96/2023      96  95/2023
TOMBSTONE                  95  96/2020      97  99/1942      96  98/1917
WILLCOX                    95 100/1915      98  98/1956      96  98/1956

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM Friday to 7 PM MST Saturday
for AZZ501-502-504-505.

&&

$$

Malarkey

Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson