133
FXUS65 KTWC 242131
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
231 PM MST Fri May 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Seasonably warm, dry, and breezy this afternoon. A weak
disturbance will bring breezier, cooler, yet still warm conditions
to the area tomorrow through the holiday weekend. Next week, much
warmer with high temperatures potentially exceeding 100 degrees as a
ridge of high pressure builds over the desert southwest.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Dry, warm, and breezy conditions will continue to be
the forecast focus this afternoon through the holiday weekend as a
weak upper level disturbance quickly passes over the forecast area.
Scattered high, thin, and wispy cirrus clouds will provide little
relief from the typical potent desert sunshine.

Honing in on the forecast for tomorrow, the combined ingredients
of warm, dry, and a bit breezier west to southwest winds will
yield a concerning fire weather environment. Conditions will be
breeziest across the eastern valleys of Cochise, Graham, and
southern Greenlee counties, thus a Red Flag Warning is in effect
tomorrow from 10 am to 9 pm for those areas. Please refer to the
fire weather discussion below for specific details.

Outside of fire weather concerns, the aforementioned disturbance
will allow temperatures to cool to 3-8 degrees below normal over the
weekend. Don`t be fooled though as this will be short lived. While
cooler high temperatures may seem enticing for outdoor recreation,
practicing hydration and heat safety should remain a priority. In
fact, there is still a 60% probability that temperatures will be at
least 90 degrees in the Tucson metro tomorrow.

Speaking of heat, a ridge of high pressure will rapidly begin
building over the desert southwest early next week resulting in high
temperatures baking to 3-8 degrees above normal Monday and beyond.
How does this translate to forecasted high temperatures? There is a
20%, 60%, and 55% chance of reaching 100 degrees in the Tucson metro
on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday, respectively.

Beyond Wednesday, solutions begin to diverge in the upper air
pattern. The NBM has a 20% chance of temperatures hanging around the
century mark for Tucson which suggests ridging will remain in place.
However, cluster analyses suggest another disturbance could be
forthcoming which may result in a few degrees of cooling.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 26/00Z.
FEW to SCT clouds around 20-25k ft AGL throughout the forecast
period. Westerly SFC winds at 10 to 15 kts with gusts up to 25 kts
through 25/03Z. Then southerly winds less than 10 kts through
25/15Z. After 25/15Z, westerly to southwesterly winds at 12 to 18
kts with gusts up to 30 kts through the end of the forecast period.
The stronger winds will generally near KALK and to the north and
east. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions with breezy to locally windy
afternoons today and especially tomorrow. Minimum RH values
bottoming out in the single digits in valleys with poor to fair
overnight recoveries. Critical fire weather conditions tomorrow east
of Tucson, especially for fire weather zone 152 where a Red Flag
Warning has been posted from 10 am to 9 pm. Temperatures near
typical values for late May, with hotter afternoons likely
through the middle of next week.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 9 PM MST Saturday for AZZ152.

&&

$$

Public...Van Stratten
Aviation...Strongman
Fire Weather....Van Stratten

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