Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD
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790 FXUS63 KUNR 250333 AFDUNR Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY National Weather Service Rapid City SD 933 PM MDT Fri May 24 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Winds continue to decrease, becoming light overnight. - Active pattern, with some showers and storms this weekend. && .DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Friday) Issued at 212 PM MDT Fri May 24 2024 The low pressure system has moved into eastern North Dakota, relaxing the surface pressure gradient over the forecast area and allowing the winds to decrease this afternoon and evening. Winds will become light overnight as the surface high and a weakly defined upper ridge shift eastward across the forecast area. Low temperatures will be seasonably cool with lows on the plains generally ranging from the upper 30s to the upper 40s. Isolated, sheltered, low lying areas on the plains of parts of northeastern Wyoming and far northwestern South Dakota may cool enough for a little frost by Saturday morning. Mid-level warm advection ahead of an approaching upper trough may produce a few light showers over parts of southwestern and south central South Dakota late tonight/early Saturday. The shortwave trough will slide across the area on Saturday, bringing chances for some showers and thunderstorms mainly later in the afternoon. Buoyancy and shear profiles are not supportive of stronger/severe storms on Saturday. A better defined shortwave/upper low will cross the area for Saturday night through Sunday night with better chances for more widespread showers and storms. Weekend total QPF amounts of 0.25-0.5 inches are possible mainly over the Black Hills. An upper ridge will bring a period of dry weather from Monday night through Tuesday night. The second half of next weekend is more uncertain, with ensembles now pointing toward chances for showers and thunderstorm each day from Wednesday through Friday. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Saturday Night) Issued At 932 PM MDT Fri May 24 2024 Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. A few high based showers/storms are possible Saturday afternoon/evening. && .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. WY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...10 AVIATION...Johnson