115
FXUS64 KLZK 011102
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
602 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday Night)
Issued at 327 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

CURRENTLY:

As of 3AM CDT, a weakening MCV continues to track northeastward into
northeast Arkansas. Extending southward from the MCV is a line of
sub-severe thunderstorms extending across eastern Arkansas that will
continue tracking eastward overall. The remaining activity will
track from Arkansas into Tennessee and Mississippi during the
morning hours on Saturday.

TODAY (SATURDAY):

A stationary boundary will continue to slowly meander across the
northwestern part of the state before becoming a weak cold front and
progressing across the state from northwest to southeast. As of 3AM
CDT, observations across far western Arkansas are beginning to
indicate that the boundary is in place in northwestern Arkansas with
sfc obs behind the boundary showing distinct winds out of the north
to north-northwest. Expect partly cloudy skies later Saturday
afternoon with dry conditions for the entire state after the
remnants of the MCV exit the state by midday.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT:

An approaching upper lvl SWT in tandem with two dynamic systems at
the sfc: one which is exiting the region and another that is
developing on the leeward side of Rocky Mountain region of the CONUS
will bring the opportunity for increased POPs during Sunday
afternoon into Sunday evening. An isolated thunderstorm cannot be
ruled out; however severe weather is not anticipated. Expect
increasing isolated rain chances on Sunday afternoon.

Temperatures over the short-term period will be near to slightly
above average compared to climatological normals for this time of
the year.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 327 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Forecast/grids were left pretty much in tact this morning as models
remain in decent enough agreement keeping the pattern unsettled
initially before ridging develops to the west of the CWA. For the
timing differences that are being seen, although they are minor, a
blend of solutions seems the best course of action.

Period initiates with a continuation of the rather muddled upper
flow over the area and ongoing rain chances over the northwest part
of the state. Precip chances will be spreading across the remainder
of the forecast area through the remainder of the day. Rain chances
are being generated by yet another short wave trough/possible linear
MCS moving across the state with another one on its heels for Monday
night into Tuesday. This particular feature look like it will
affect northern and possibly central Arkansas more as it pivots off
to the northeast early Tuesday.

Meanwhile low pressure passing well to the north will drag a cold
front through the state Wednesday. Showers and thunderstorms will
accompany this boundary as it moves through with upper level ridging
starting to build over the four corners region. As the ridge builds,
it will place the area in a pronounced northwest flow aloft with,
you guessed it, another MCS type feature moving through Wednesday
night into Thursday morning.

This will be followed by additional, weaker waves caught up in the
prevailing flow and while precipitation chances do decrease with
time, they can not be completely removed from all of the CWA at this
time. Temperatures will generally be at or above seasonal normals
during the day, and slightly milder than average at night due to the
increased cloud cover and RH through the majority of the overnight
periods.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 602 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

All sites will begin in MVFR to IFR flight category for lowered CIGS
and patchy fog across the northern and western part of the state
reducing VSBY. By Saturday midday, all sites will see VFR conditions
as the cloud deck begins to lift and patchy fog dissipates. VSBY
will likely drop back into MVFR to IFR flight category during the
early morning hours on Sunday as fog is expected to be more
prevalent with clearing skies and light winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     83  64  87  70 /  20   0  10  10
Camden AR         87  66  89  70 /  10  10  20  10
Harrison AR       80  61  84  67 /  10   0  20  10
Hot Springs AR    87  66  89  70 /  10  10  20  20
Little Rock   AR  87  69  89  73 /  10   0  20  10
Monticello AR     86  69  89  72 /  10  10  20  10
Mount Ida AR      87  65  88  69 /  10  10  20  20
Mountain Home AR  80  61  85  67 /  20   0  10  10
Newport AR        83  66  88  71 /  30   0  10  10
Pine Bluff AR     86  68  89  71 /  10  10  20  10
Russellville AR   85  66  88  70 /  10   0  20  20
Searcy AR         84  65  88  70 /  10   0  10  10
Stuttgart AR      86  69  88  72 /  20   0  10  10

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...74
LONG TERM....56
AVIATION...74