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416
FXUS61 KBGM 260100
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
900 PM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Rain showers are expected across the area through tonight as a
frontal system moves through the area. Rain will come to an end
from west to east on Thursday. High pressure and drier weather
returns Friday through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
900 PM Update:

PoPs were updated once again. The main batch of showers have
moved out of the region, though there is a little back building
in Oneida County. There is also a patch of drizzle/light rain
moving into the Northern Tier of NEPA. Otherwise, most are dry
and will be for most of the night. Winds were also touched up
with this update. Otherwise, the forecast was doing well.

645 PM Update:

The CAMs are indicating that there will be a break in shower
activity for the first half of the overnight hours. Looking at
radar, there is little to no activity out west, so it seems like
the CAMs are indeed onto something. Due to this, PoPs were
greatly reduced until around midnight. Then as the frontal
system approaches late tonight, PoPs gradually increase into
what was previously forecasted. Model guidance does show limited
instability during the early morning hours tomorrow, so thunder
remains in the forecast for that time period.

Minor adjustments were needed to the hourly temps and winds to
better match the latest observations. The showers have cooled
conditions a little bit more than originally forecasted. With
showers clearing out and the added moisture left behind, fog
cannot be totally ruled out. However, model soundings are
showing strong winds just above the surface, so that will likely
prevent much fog from developing.

315 PM Update:

Widespread showers have moved in a bit quicker than previously
anticipated and therefore made some adjustments to PoPs for the
remainder of this afternoon. For the most part, thunderstorms
have not been able to develop, so removed mention of thunder for
the remainder of this afternoon into this evening.

The cutoff low north of the area will drag a warm front through
the region tonight, which will result in additional showers and
possibly a few isolated thunderstorms. Moderate rainfall is
possible at times, but flooding is not expected. Then the
associated cold front slowly moves through the area on Thursday,
which will allow showers to slowly taper off from west to east.
By the afternoon, areas west of I-81 may be mostly dry, but
showers may linger a bit longer east of I-81, especially for
Northeast PA to the Catskills. Otherwise, after a cloudy start
area-wide, partial clearing is expected from west to east as the
cold front moves through. High temperatures are expected to be
in the upper 60s to mid 70s.

A few lingering showers will be possible across the Poconos-
Catskills Thursday evening, but otherwise the rest of the area
will be dry as high pressure moves in. Lows are expected to be
in the upper 40s to upper 50s.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
230 PM Update...

High pressure drop south out of Canada on Friday, leading to
mostly dry conditions. However, models have been trying to sneak
some moisture into NE PA Friday evening through Saturday
morning. The broad upper low near the mid- Mississippi River
valley absorbs the remnants of Hurricane Helene and a weak
shortwave rotating around this low could come far enough north
to produce some spotty showers, but PoPs are generally under
30% through Saturday. Highs Friday and Saturday are expected to
be in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Lows Friday and Saturday nights
are again mainly in the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
240 PM Update...

Sunday into Tuesday will be dominated by large ridge of high
pressure. This high pressure system should prevent the
aforementioned upper low from coming any further north and it
exit the Mid Atlantic Coast Monday night.

The next chance for any rainfall will come towards the end of
the forecast period as a cold front may drop far enough
southward to push across Central NY. However, at this time
confidence is too low on the timing and position of this front,
so have kept PoPs below 50% at this time. If this front does
push through the region, expect cool conditions mid week onward
with the potential for frost Wednesday night.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Low clouds across much of the area continues to bring MVFR to
Fuel Alternate ceilings this evening. IFR ceilings have already
settled in at BGM with remaining sites expected to follow as
showers fill back in from the south around 6Z.

These low ceilings will remain along with some lowering visbys
as well in any steadier rain. Isolated thunder is possible, but
probabilities are too low to include in the TAFs at this time.
A slow improvement is expected late Thursday morning/early
Thursday afternoon as showers depart the area.

.Outlook...

Thursday afternoon...Some lingering MVFR to Fuel Alternate
ceilings early, then gradually becoming VFR from west to east
late.

Thursday night through Monday...Mainly VFR, but valley fog is
possible at KELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BJG
NEAR TERM...BJG/BTL
SHORT TERM...DK/MPK
LONG TERM...DK/MPK
AVIATION...BJG/ES