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852
FXUS63 KICT 210815
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
315 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

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- Increasing chances for scattered to numerous showers/storms
  late today through Sunday night. Locally heavy rainfall
  likely, especially along/north of Highway 50.

- One more day of hot weather today, with a big cool down
  Sunday into next week.
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&&

.DISCUSSION...
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Issued at 309 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

PRECIPITATION...

EARLY THIS MORNING--EARLY AFTERNOON...A smattering of hit-or-miss
showers/storms will impact the region, ahead of subtle mid-level
energy amidst rich mid-level moisture. Most locations should
remain dry. Brief heavy rain will accompany the strongest cores.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON--SUNDAY NIGHT...This period will feature
increasing chances for scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms, as a potent shortwave approaching from the southwest
interacts with a strong cold front approaching from the north. The
best chances late this afternoon through about midday Sunday will be
mainly along and northwest of I-35, with these chances gradually
shifting south into southern and southeast Kansas Sunday afternoon
and night. While widespread severe weather is not expected, modest
instability and ample flow aloft may support some storm organization
for a handful of strong to severe storms, mainly late this afternoon-
evening along/northwest of I-35, and again over southeast Kansas
Sunday afternoon-evening. Additionally, seasonably high precipitable
waters and numerous training showers/storms will support locally
heavy rainfall, with the greatest potential for localized storm-
total amounts exceeding 1-2 inches generally along/north of Highway
50 per probabilistic guidance.

MID-LATE NEXT WEEK...Deterministic and ensemble consensus supports
the potential for scattered light precipitation Tuesday night, as
shortwave energy dives southeast over Mid-America. Thereafter,
significant model divergence is noted, with the ECMWF and Canadian
consensus stalling an upper low over the region through next
weekend, while the GFS is much more progressive. The ECMWF/Canadian
solutions would support periodic rain chances (especially if the
latest Canadian verifies with the incorporation of remnant tropical
energy), while the GFS would keep a mostly dry forecast. Stay tuned
as details become clearer the next several days.

TEMPERATURES...

TODAY--SATURDAY...One more day of above average temperatures will
prevail through today, as southerly flow persists ahead of a deep
western CONUS trough. Widespread 90s to near 100 degrees are likely,
although increasing dense mid and upper clouds could end up
tempering highs a few degrees cooler, especially over central
Kansas.

SUNDAY AND BEYOND...Much cooler weather is on the way, as a strong
cold front slices south through Mid-America. The cooler Canadian
airmass combined with widespread clouds and precipitation should
keep central Kansas in the 50s-60s Sunday, with 70s and 80s further
south, although temperatures will be falling by mid-late afternoon
over southern Kansas. Deterministic and ensemble consensus keeps the
region below average much of next week, especially if the cooler
ECMWF and Canadian solutions verify with the stalling storm system
over Mid-America.
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&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1233 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

It`ll be a busy 24 hours across the region with a cold front
entering the region and widespread chances of showers and
storms.

For the morning hours, a cluster of thunderstorms across
southeast Kansas is bringing moderate to heavy rainfall with 25
to 40-knot gusts in some areas. This cluster should move into
Missouri between 07-09Z this morning. Additional showers and
isolated storms have also developed within the across portions
of central and south-central impacts. Other than the occasional
lightning strike, this activity should only produce very brief
moderate to heavy rainfall. Further development this morning is
possible, but confidence in the forecast is low in terms of
storm chances this morning after 09Z.

It appears there will be a lull in activity roughly from about
09Z this morning through about the mid afternoon hours (21Z).
After 21Z, widespread showers and storms are expected to develop
across much of the area, but especially along and north of US54.
A few strong storms may be capable of producing 30 to 40-knot
wind gusts, but the main concerns will be lightning and pockets
of moderate to heavy rainfall. Storm chances are anticipated to
last through the end of the TAF period.

Meanwhile, a cold front will be tracking across the area today
starting around 18Z when a wind shift from southwesterly to
northerly arrives along I-70. This front will quickly progress
southward this afternoon and should be located across far
southeast Kansas by 03Z tonight. Wind speeds will generally be
around 10 to 15 knots both ahead and behind of the frontal
boundary. However, gusts up to 25 knots cannot be ruled out,
especially after frontal passage.

&&

.CLIMATE...
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Issued at 309 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

A record cool high temperature is possible at Russell on Sunday.
The record is 57 degrees last set in 1962, with the forecast
calling for mid-upper 50s.
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&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...JC
CLIMATE...ADK