Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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892 FXUS61 KILN 251338 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 938 AM EDT Sat May 25 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A weak cold front will move through the region today, bringing a chance for showers and thunderstorms. For Sunday into Sunday night, a stronger weather system moving into the area has the potential to push multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms through the Ohio Valley. Some of these thunderstorms may be severe. Low pressure and a cold front will then move east across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley on Monday, bringing additional threats for showers and thunderstorms. A cooler and showery pattern will then setup into midweek. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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A weak cold front will push slowly east across our area today. While the better upper level forcing will remain to our north, as we destabilize through the afternoon, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible along and ahead of the front. The best chance for these will be across our eastern areas this afternoon. With some marginal deeper layer shear, a few strong to severe storms cannot be ruled out, with the best chance for this being across central Ohio on down through the Scioto River Valley. Highs this afternoon will be in the upper 70s to the lower 80s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Convection should diminish and exit the eastern CWFA area this evening as the weak cold front eventually lays out west to east near or just south of the Ohio River. We will see a brief respite in active weather overnight. Skies will range from mostly clear north to partly cloudy south. With higher dewpoints lingering east/south, some patchy to areas of river fog will be possible. Lows will range from the upper 50s north to the lower 60s south. Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms will be possible Sunday into Sunday night as a mid level trough moves from the Plains into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Embedded s/wvs or MCVs rippling through the mean trough will help to act as triggering mechanisms in the return flow that will be an increasingly moist and unstable airmass. Uncertainty still exists at this juncture for Sunday in terms of how one of those s/wvs or MCVs will affect our forecast area. Looking at many convection allowing models, some weaken the convection as it moves into our area during the late morning/afternoon hours while others try to hold the convection together as it hugs a warm front trying to advance to the northeast. How this all plays out will have an affect on what convection will do Sunday evening/night and where overall severe weather will occur. At this point, it appears that some of the convection will hold together as it moves into our region, especially west. Some strong to marginally severe storms may occur with this first round. This feature has the potential, if strong enough, to modulate the airmass by temporarily stabilizing the atmosphere in its wake. How soon another mid level s/wv or MCV begins to move east and interacts with a returning most/unstable airmass with and an increasingly stronger wind field will all depend on timing and spacing between the two entities. Right now, the SPC seems to be thinking that enough airmass recovery across our southwest would put this region in the highest risk for severe (damaging winds the main threat with isolated large hail and isolated tornadoes the secondary threats) for Sunday evening and night, with less chances for severe farther north and east where storms may be more elevated in nature. In addition to the storms Sunday night, there will be a flood/flash flood risk given pwats in the 1.50 to 1.75 range. At this time, will rely on SPC to break down the HWO into different segments with the southwestern CWFA having the highest threat based on the latest model guidance. Highs on Sunday will range from the lower to mid 80s with lows Sunday night only dropping into the mid and upper 60s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Increased precipitation chances for Monday as the cold front will be moving through the region and models are in agreement on precipitation with this feature. There is instability as well especially across the south and east and therefore increased thunder chances from the blend across these areas. Gusty winds are expected during the day, however expect wind gusts to increase more after the passage of the front during the late afternoon and into the evening hours. Wind gusts of 35 to 40 mph will be possible outside of thunderstorms. Cannot rule out some isolated stronger wind gusts. Damaging wind parameters indicate the potential for some damaging wind potential with the storms on Monday. Will add isolated damaging wind potential into the HWO. Multiple upper level disturbances will work through Monday night through the day on Wednesday allowing for off and on shower activity. A slight chance of thunder is also possible Tuesday afternoon. Breezy conditions will be likely on Tuesday, however wind gusts will not be as strong as Monday. There is not a strong signal for precipitation after the daytime period on Wednesday and therefore went dry for the remainder of the long term. With the passage of the cold front on Monday, temperatures will be cooler in the long term with highs in the 70s across most locations during this time. Lows will drop down into the 50s and even the 40s Wednesday and Thursday nights. && .AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... For today, a cold front will move east/southeast across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Main mid level disturbance will be removed from our region across the Great Lakes. This just leaves diurnal instability and weak low level forcing ahead and along the cold front to generate some scattered showers/storms. Have only included VCTS/CB at the eastern terminals until frontal passage. Winds will shift from the southwest to the west, then to the northwest with the frontal passage. Wind speeds will be around 10 knots. For tonight, the cold front will sag to the east/southeast and will eventually lay out along or just south of the Ohio River. Skies will become mostly clear behind the front. Some patchy to areas of fog (mainly river fog) may develop along and south of the Ohio River. Have placed some MVFR/IFR visibilities at KLUK. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible at times through Tuesday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hickman NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM...Hickman LONG TERM... AVIATION...Hickman