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665
FXUS63 KJKL 231851
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
251 PM EDT Thu May 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms are expected from time to time through
  the middle of next week, especially during the afternoon and
  early evening hours.

- A few storms could become strong to severe today and Friday,
  with large hail and damaging winds the primary threats.

- There is the potential for a few strong to severe storms again
  Sunday, with damaging winds and large hail again being the
  primary threats.

- An increase in clouds and the possibility of rain will lead to
  somewhat cooler temperatures each day through the first of next
  week.

&&

.UPDATE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 251 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2024

Precip from this morning`s convection has tapered off and moved
east, and clouds have broken up over most of the area.
Temperatures are responding, warming into and through the 70s.
The warming is destabilizing the atmosphere and additional
convection is developing over central KY. With modest shear
present with the growing instability, SPC has issued svr tstm
watch 293 taking in the western half of the forecast area until
8 PM.

UPDATE Issued at 1003 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2024

Forecast was updated for categorical POP today across the
southern portion of the area where precip is moving through. Once
this passes it looks like there will be a relative lull this
afternoon before another increase in activity toward evening.
Heating/destabilization will be minimal today due to ongoing
activity, and there is not good model agreement for this evening,
with features aloft being weak, and mesoscale factors harder to
pin down likely to play a role.

UPDATE Issued at 702 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2024

Made a minor update to this mornings precipitation chances in our
southwest counties, based on current radar trends. Overall the
forecast was not changed much, with no zone update needed. Used
the most recent obs to freshen up the hourly grids as well.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 406 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2024

Active weather is expected to continue across the region to finish
out the week. The current surface charts have a complex pattern in
place across the eastern half of the CONUS. A hybrid area of low
pressure was in place over southeastern Canada, with cold
extending southward into the southeastern Great Lakes, where the
boundary was linking up to another area of low pressure. From
there, a cold front extended southwestward through Ohio then along
the Ohio River into southeastern Missouri. From there, a
stationary boundary was analyzed extending into southeastern
Oklahoma and into north central Texas, where another area of low
pressure was in place. We will see showers and storms again firing
up across the area as the sun comes up and surface heating
begins. Rain chances will at their highest from mid-morning
through mid-afternoon today, as the cold front begins moving our
way. This front may slow or even stall at times, and will likely
meander about today and tonight, acting as a trigger for further
shower and storm development. We should see good rain chances
again on Friday, as a cold front finally begins making a solid
eastward push through the region.

The latest high resolution models all had slightly different
solutions, with varying timing and coverage of shower and storm
development today through Friday. In general, we will have plenty
of moisture, lift, and instability in place to keep showers and
storms going through the end of the week, with afternoon peak
heating being the best time for convective activity. Locally heavy
rainfall, frequent lighting, large hail, and damaging winds will
all be possible from the strongest storms today, although we are
currently only under a marginal risk for severe weather at this
time.

Temperatures will be a bit cooler the next few days, due to
persistent and widespread cloud cover and repeated rounds of
showers and storms across the area. In summary, the short term
forecast is quite challenging, as nailing down the exact timing
and coverage of showers and storms, along with the extent of any
severe weather, will remain difficult due to model uncertainty
and complex mesoscale dynamics over the region today and tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 331 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2024

An unsettled weather pattern is expected into next week across
eastern Kentucky. The period begins Friday evening with a round of
showers and thunderstorms exiting east followed by a renewed push of
showers and a few storms into the overnight hours as a warm front
pushes northeast through eastern Kentucky coincident with the
arrival of a southwesterly low-level jet. Chance PoPs rise briefly
to likely PoPs during the early morning hours Saturday to account
for this.

Despite subtle mid-level height rises Saturday, a disturbance
crossing the Ohio River Valley should be able to initiate another
round of showers and thunderstorms to the south of a stalled front
over far southern Indiana and northeastern Kentucky. Shear will be
lacking so severe weather is not expected despite moderate
instability.

After a very brief lull Sunday morning, the next system reaches the
area by Sunday afternoon bringing a strong westerly jet stream with
it across the Lower Ohio and Tennessee River Valleys. This will
provide shear needed for strong to severe thunderstorms, while
associated ageostrophic flows in the lower levels will usher ample
moisture and instability into the Bluegrass State from the
southwest. Though instability will be not as robust over western and
central parts of the state, there is a Slight Risk for severe
thunderstorms Sunday afternoon into the overnight. This risk for
severe storms may linger into Monday until the passage of a strong
cold front late Monday or overnight Monday night.

From Tuesday through the end of the long-term period Wednesday
night, northwest cyclonic flow aloft keeps the chances for showers
and possibly a few thunderstorms in the forecast with a potentially
continued active jet stream extending across the Midwest.

Warm and humid conditions this weekend with highs in the 80s and
lows in the upper 50s to upper 60s will lower to the 70s for highs
and lower to mid 50s for lows by the middle of next week behind the
cold front.

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 251 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2024

MVFR conditions lingered some places in extreme eastern KY at the
start of the period, but VFR conditions were rapidly expanding
eastward as clouds break up. Sunshine is destabilizing the
atmosphere, and additional showers and thunderstorms developing
over central KY will move/develop east into the JKL forecast area
this afternoon. Coverage remains uncertain, and VCTS has been used
in TAFs from late today into tonight. They will bring localized
sub-VFR conditions, but timing and location is to problematic to
include in TAFs. Once the precipitation dies out tonight, fog and
low clouds are expected to develop bring IFR or worse conditions
for most places. VFR conditions are then expected to return late
Friday morning.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...CMC
AVIATION...HAL