Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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287 FXUS63 KMPX 231711 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 1211 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A cool start to the week with a gradual warming trend. - The dry September continues with few chances for rain. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 232 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 The same cool and dry airmass that was over us on Sunday will continue to stay over us today under high pressure. A shortwave passing through this evening into tonight will provide for some broad lift. With another shortwave to the south over the mid to lower Mississippi Valley, there is not much moisture to advect into the Upper Midwest. The lack of moisture will keep precipitation chances low and where it does rain it will be light. This is reflected well in ensemble products like the NAEFS, where we stay normal for precipitable water and the 90th percentile values remain well to the south. While the passage of this wave is not likely to bring rain it will bring a change in flow and airmass. This change will shift us into more of a warm air advection period. We look likely to advect in either warmer air or air of a similar temperature over the remainder of the week. Thanks to this we will begin a warming trend starting on Tuesday that will continue through to near the end of the week. We will see highs today in the upper 60s to lower 70s and by Thursday highs will be near 80. This peak looks to continue into the weekend. Normal highs are around 70 for this period. With September nearing its end how does September 2024 stack up so far? The most notable number is the total precipitation at MSP Airport. So far this month MSP Airport has gotten 0.06 inches which is well below the current driest September of 0.24 inches in 2022. Based on the current forecast it looks likely that this record will be set. However that does not mean the entire area or even the entire Twin Cities metro has been in a record dry period. We have had mainly small thunderstorms and showers this month making rain very localized, for example our office in Chanhassen has gotten 0.47 inches which is the third driest in its much smaller climate record (MPX goes back to 1996 and MSP goes back to 1871). Looking past the metro we have St Cloud at 0.35 inches (third driest), Eau Claire 1.81 (29th driest), and Mankato 0.30 inches. So in summary we are overall dry this month after an overall wet year, but some areas have gotten localized heavier rain this month like Eau Claire. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
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Issued at 1202 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 VFR conditions prevail through the 18z TAF period. The approach of a cold front from the northwest will bring the chance for scattered showers across western Minnesota tonight. Have included a PROB30 at AXN between 6-8z to account for this potential. Dry air should work against greater coverage of shower chances, such that we opted to keep the rest of the terminals dry. Broken ceiling around 10-12k feet will accompany the frontal passage. Winds kick west/northwesterly by Tuesday afternoon, however speeds are forecast to remain very light. KMSP...No additional concerns at this time. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ WED...VFR. Wind NW 5 kts. THU...VFR. Wind S 5 kts. FRI...VFR. Wind SE 5-10 kts.
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&& .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...NDC AVIATION...Strus