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499
FXUS63 KOAX 252324
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
624 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorms are expected later tonight with some severe
  weather possible, especially along and south of I-80. Large
  hail, damaging winds, and localized flooding are the primary
  hazards.

- A strong storm or two is possible in southeast NE and
  southwest IA Sunday afternoon/evening with hail and/or gusty
  winds possible.

- Additional showers and storms are possible Wednesday night
  through Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 341 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

Tonight

A deepening surface low over eastern Colorado will continue to
move into central Kansas this evening with an associated warm
front which is forecast to move north to near the
Nebraska/Kansas border by late tonight. Aloft, a shortwave
trough is forecast to move into the High Plains late tonight. In
addition, a strengthening and veering low-level jet will bring
increasing low-level moisture into the region after dark as well
as a moderately unstable environment.

Latest CAM output consensus suggests initial thunderstorm
development over western Nebraska and northwest Kansas in the next
few hours and this is expected to continue to spread
east/northeast into our area by 9-10pm and continue
east/northeastward through 2am. Storms do look to remain
elevated by the time they reach our are after dark. Ample shear
and increasing mid-level lapse rates would support large hail
and damaging wind gusts. Thunderstorms look to linger across the
forecast area overnight which could drop pockets of heavy
rainfall. Due to the fairly quick speed these storms are
forecast to move through, do not think widespread flash
flooding will be an issue, but there certainly could be some
very localized flooding if a few additional elevated storms
train for a few hours.

Sunday and Sunday Night

A trailing shortwave trough is forecast to move east through the
central Plains early Sunday while the associated surface low moves
northeast across northeast Kansas and northern Missouri. CAM output
continues to show scattered thunderstorm development across portions
of our southern forecast area by afternoon where mid-level lapse
rates will be strongest in association with the passing shortwave
trough. Precipitation chances move off to our east by Sunday evening
as the shortwave moves east.

Memorial Day and Tuesday

A potent shortwave trough is forecast to pass just to the northeast
of the forecast area bringing northwesterly winds to the region and
high temperatures in the 70s with mostly sunny skies and dry
conditions.

Dry conditions continue into Tuesday with surface high pressure
building overhead with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

Wednesday through Saturday

Mid-level ridging builds overhead through the middle of the week
with highs remaining in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Another mid-
level shortwave is forecast to move across the central Plains by
Thursday bringing our next chance for showers and thunderstorms by
Thursday night. Broad southwesterly flow aloft will keep the pattern
quite active into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 624 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

Thunderstorms still on track to move through the area this
evening and overnight. Highest chances for severe weather will
be at LNK and OMA, though kept winds at 35 kts at both sites for
now. Also still some questions on exact timing of storms, but do
expect IFR/MVFR conditions as they move through. Behind the
storms, expect some brief VFR conditions, but MVFR to IFR
ceilings will work back in with perhaps a few spotty showers and
isolated storms into Sunday morning, though not confident enough
to include those with this forecast. Ceilings should scatter
out by Sunday afternoon with north winds gusting around 20 kts
at times.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kern
AVIATION...CA