-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
386
FXUS62 KGSP 291001
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
601 AM EDT Wed May 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cooler and drier air mass will gradually build into the region
through the end of the week, with high pressure moving across the
region at the start of the weekend. Once the high moves off to our
east on Sunday, we should see a slow warm up with a return of the
mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 600 AM Wednesday: No major changes to the forecast. Most of
the area remains under clear skies with a few patchy higher level
clouds passing through. Forecast is on track for the day.
Meanwhile, a quiet stretch continues as an omega blocking pattern
churns across the CONUS. The the north, an unsettled trough and
upper low swing southward, but remain far enough away to not impact
the CWA. Given the proximity of the pressure gradient to the
mountains, another chance for some low-end wind gusts across the
higher elevations this afternoon and diminish into the overnight
hours. Guidance from the GFS and EURO keep rain chances nil through
the period. By tonight, the upper ridge axis over the central plains
moves eastward and gradually contributes to weak height rises over
the area. A stout area of high pressure will also remain over the
area. Drier air from the NW flow will continue to move in, drying
out the region and keeping dewpoints down. Temps approach the mid
80s east of the mountains today with cooler overnight lows around
climo.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1253 AM EDT Wednesday: The remainder of the work week
continues to look relatively benign across our region as we should
remain under a NW to N flow aloft between the upper trof that
digs down from the lower Great Lakes to the area offshore of the
Mid-Atlantic region and the upper ridge that migrates slowly east
from the MS Valley region to the Appalachians. For the most part,
this pattern supports high pressure building down from the upper
Great Lakes, finally reaching the western Carolinas by Saturday
morning. There is one interesting development in the new GFS...and
that is the vigorous short wave dropping down to dig the eastern
upper trof down across the Mid-Atlantic on Thursday/Thursday
evening. The wave brings a good shot of mid-level DPVA which
could support some shower development over the NC Piedmont, but
for now the moisture looks to be lacking, and the model guidance
fails to respond much. A few of the CAMs show isolated showers
dropping down in the NW flow late Thursday, so expect a trend
toward including some small precip prob over the western Piedmont
in future cycles. The pattern supports keeping temps below normal,
maybe a category on the highs, and about five degrees on the lows.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 249 AM EDT Wednesday: Looks like we should be able to
squeeze one more decent day out of this stretch on Saturday as
the deamplifying upper ridge axis moves overhead. Temps should
remain on the cool side of normal. Things start returning to
early summer from that point onward. The GFS has trended toward
a convoluted and baggy upper pattern across the region starting
on Sunday, with what looks like remnant MCVs and orphaned short
waves roaming around from the Plains to the Carolinas. The other
models at least show a more coherent pattern that would be more
zonal with embedded upper waves. Either way, expect the diurnal
cycle to be the primary organization to scattered showers and
storms each day, and that`s what we will go with until the signal
improves and we get a better sense of what days might have some
enhancement from the passage of an upper wave. In this pattern,
we should expect a gradual warmup back above normal, along with
an increase in humidity, through the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR conditions continue at all
terminals through the end of the TAF period. Skies should start off
SKC with minimal disruption from any cirrus that develops this
afternoon, keeping CIGS VFR. No VSBY concerns as drier air continues
to move into the area throughout the day and overnight hours. This
will prevent FG development tonight. Winds are light to start and
are expected to gradually pick up by the afternoon. A few low-end
gusts are likely at most sites, but will diminish by the evening
hours. Winds will prevail N/NW for the entire TAF period.

Outlook: VFR conditions will persist with the drier weather
conditions through the end of the workweek. Shower and thunderstorm
chances may return for the weekend.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...CP