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199
FXUS61 KRLX 021027
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
627 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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A low pressure system brings rain showers today. Warmer with a
brief dry spell for most Monday into Tuesday, before unsettled
weather returns by mid-week.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 625 AM Sunday...

Forecast on track.

As of 235 AM Sunday...

A weak low pressure will bring rain showers to the area today.
Timing and coverage will be largely tied to two mid-level short
wave troughs, one crossing early this morning already bring
showers across the middle Ohio Valley, and the other crossing
this afternoon in concert with diurnal heating.

Diurnal heating will be limited, keeping CAPE narrow. Together
with modest shear, any thunderstorms that occur this afternoon
and evening are not expected to be severe, and the best chance
for a thunderstorm at all is across southern portions of the
area.

While PW values increase to around 1.5 inches this morning on a
40 kt h850 theta e feed, the feed weakens today, and weak
forcing will limit the amount of moisture we will be able to
squeeze out despite the efficient warm rain process.
Nonetheless, locally heavy downpours are possible.

With flow limited to 5 to n10 kts through the mid levels,
stratus and areas of post-rain fog are likely to settle in
overnight tonight.

The rather cloudy regime will coral temperatures with a 15
degree bracket this period, inside the normals for this time of
year, below normal highs today and above normal lows tonight.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Sunday...

With a weak surface high and upper level ridging the area will
likely endure some diurnal shower and storm activity, but it
will likely be isolated in nature. Temperatures will be
slightly above normal and the likely activity will be mostly
confined to the mountains due to the elevated heat effect, but
cannot rule out a storm elsewhere.

Tuesday will be almost a mirror image of Monday with weak
surface high pressure along with weak upper level ridging. A
disturbance will be at our doorstep to the west which will try
and interact with our area, but may have trouble with that
upper level ridging in the way. Diurnal activity cannot be ruled
out as temperatures climb into the mid to upper 80`s, even low
90`s in some spots. This will provide plenty of instability to
support diurnal activity which could be isolated to scattered
in nature.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 300 AM Sunday...

By Wednesday, a cold front will approach the area associated
with a low over the Great Lakes. Models are now in agreement on
the location of this aforementioned potent low which will ride
southeast toward the area. This will slowly push out the cold
front by Thursday morning and then provide another front from
wrap around flow for frontal passage on Friday morning. One of
the models (EURO) was not so sure about this solution, but felt
confident to add more POPs from central guidance during frontal
passage since all of the long range models are in sync with the
lows location and the frontal boundary.

This synoptic setup will promote diurnal activity on a daily
basis until the system kicks out after the weekend. Went with a
blended model for the rest of the period to adjust for the lack
of confidence from the EURO which is not letting the low as far
south as the other models. This equated to diurnal chances for
showers and storms for the weekend.

Temperatures will be on a slow decline finishing this period
off slightly below seasonable on Friday and Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 625 AM Sunday...

While a sort of double-barrel low pressure system brings a
couple rounds of rain showers today, one ongoing this morning,
and then another this afternoon, the most impactful flight
restrictions will not come until overnight tonight, when
stratocumulus/stratus, and mist/fog will lower ceiling and
visibility to MVFR and then IFR. MVFR stratocu is also forecast
at times along the Ohio River, HTS and PKB, today and across the
north, CKB and EKN, later this afternoon into tonight, before
it lowers farther overnight.

A thunderstorm is possible with the second round of showers this
afternoon and evening, mainly south. Brief MVFR is possible
within heavier showers today, while brief IFR is possible within
any thunderstorm.

light and variable to calm surface flow early this morning will
become light, mainly south today, and then light and variable
to calm again tonight. Moderate southwest flow aloft early this
morning will become light southwest today, and then light west
to northwest overnight tonight.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Brief MVFR VSBY restrictions are possible
within heavier showers today, while brief IFR VSBY restrictions
are possible within any thunderstorms. Lowering of ceiling and
visibility overnight tonight may vary. This is a lower
confidence portion of the forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE               SUN 06/02/24
UTC 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
EDT 1HRLY       05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    M

AFTER 12Z MONDAY...
IFR possible in post-rain stratus and fog early Monday morning.
Brief IFR conditions are possible in showers and thunderstorms
at times Wednesday into Thursday.
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&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TRM/JZ
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM...JZ
AVIATION...TRM