401
FXAK69 PAFG 281958 CCA
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
1158 AM AKDT Tue May 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Warming trend over most of the Interior as temps briefly go above
seasonal norms through Wednesday. Rain showers will continue to
impact the Fortymile Uplands, SE Interior, and far fringes of the
E Alaska Range as easterly waves move across that region.
Thunderstorm chances increase Wednesday for the Interior as an
easterly wave tracks across most of the Interior and provides
decent instability. Showers and thunderstorms move further north
on Thursday as the thermal trough pushes northward.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Upper Levels and Analysis...
There is a 524 dam arctic low now over the Chukotsk Peninsula,
and moving west. There is a 533 dam upper low over the E Aleutians
shifting east, and another 539 dam upper low stationed over the
Gulf of AK. Weak high pressure over the Interior on Tuesday giving
way to an easterly wave over the Interior on Wednesday. This
easterly wave will be the focus for Isolated to scattered
thunderstorms. Southeasterly flow will continue over the Interior
on Thursday becoming southerly flow on Friday. Models in
fairly good agreement with the easterly wave on Wednesday.


Central and Eastern Interior...
Scattered to numerous showers will continue over the southeast
portion of the CWA today with high temps over the Central Interior
in the low 60s. A slight chance of isolated thunderstorms this
afternoon over the Eastern Interior. An easterly wave will be the
focus for numerous showers and an increased chance of isolated to
scattered thunderstorms as well, mainly over the White
Mtns/Fortymile Uplands/Upper Chena Basin. High temps on Wed will
be in the upper 60s to low 70s for most of the Central and
northern Interior. The showers will merge and continue to track
across the Central Interior and into the western Interior by
Thursday morning. Scattered showers and Isolated thunderstorms
will move further north on Thursday as the thermal trough moves
northward.

West Coast and Western Interior...
Drying and warming today and Wednesday with only some isolated
showers over the Lower Yukon this afternoon and again Wednesday.
Wednesday afternoon and evening could see isolated thunderstorms
from Galena east. Thursday starts out dry with increasing
afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorms over the western
Interior, then showers and isolated thunderstorms expanding to
the Seward Peninsula and north of Galena Thursday aftn/evening.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Stratus and fog will remain for the next several days as high
pressure builds and then the flow becomes northeasterly again
Wednesday, with the possibility of stratus and fog pushing all the
way to the slopes of the Brooks Range.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7...
The extended is basically a repeat of what has been going on the
last several days as easterly flow aloft dominates as another
large low moves into the Gulf of AK. This means seasonal weather
with bouts of showers and occasional thunderstorms over the
Interior, with general northerly winds along the West Coast.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Scattered to numerous showers will continue over the southeast
portion of the CWA today with high temps over the Central Interior
in the low 60s. A slight chance of Isolated thunderstorms this
afternoon over the Middle Tanana Valley and the Eastern Interior. An
easterly wave will be the focus for numerous showers and an
increased chance of isolated to scattered thunderstorms as well,
mainly over the White Mtns/Fortymile Uplands/Upper Chena Basin.
High temps on Wed will be in the upper 60s to low 70s for most of
the Central and northern Interior. This will be in conjunction
with a weak easterly wave moving through, and low level steering
flow from the northeast. Thunderstorms look active again Thu,
especially over the W Interior and into the Upper Koyukuk to the
Yukon Flats. It will be more stable and cooler over the S Interior
Thu.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
The water level in Fort Yukon will crest the mid-week. Minor
flooding will continue through at least the middle of the week,
with water receding very slowly by late in the week. Satellites
and ground observations continue to indicate abundant snow in the
Porcupine Mountains. As temperatures warm this week, snowmelt
could lead to continued high water along the Porcupine and the
interrelated sloughs.

Rainfall continues across the southeast Interior through the next
couple of days with another half to one inch of rain over the
Upper Tanana Basin, Eastern Alaska Range and Fortymile. There are
no significant hydro concerns for now as rivers will rise but
remain fairly low.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...None.
&&

$$