224
FXAK69 PAFG 270910
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
110 AM AKDT Mon May 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Late spring continues over the NW Arctic and N Slope where snow
showers continue across many coastal locations. More heavy rain
showers move into the SE Interior and E Alaska Range today and
tonight. Most of the remainder of the Interior is dry for the
Memorial Holiday, with temps gradually warming back to seasonal
norms through the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Upper Levels and Analysis...
There is an anomalously strong arctic low over the NW Arctic,
centered over Shishmaref, with heights around 525 dam. There is a
shortwave ridge over the E Interior with a large and sprawling
Gulf of AK low, with heights around 534 dam. There is a migratory
westward moving low over the NW Territory moving into the Yukon
Territory. There are a few hit or miss showers over the SE
Interior. Snow showers are impacting the NW Arctic and N Slope and
parts of the Interior western valleys.

Model Discussion...
The numerical models are in fair agreement with the general
pattern, but in poor agreement with smaller scale details in the
easterly flow pattern. This is fairly common for models to
struggle in these patterns, with the NAM and GFS currently the
worst models. We will favor the ECMWF and Canadian for precip
timing. However, the NAM model hi-res is good for winds, just not
precip or thunder chances.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Heavy rain showers and isolated thunderstorms move across the SE
Interior later today and tonight, and will move across the E
Alaska Range and Fortymile Uplands, too. There is an outside shot
for evening and overnight thunder in the Yukon Flats. Rainfall
over the SE Interior tapers Tuesday morning but more incursions of
easterly waves will keep chances over that area, with it generally
dry elsewhere outside of some spotty afternoon showers. Wednesday
warms a bit with chances for afternoon and evening showers and
possibly an isolated thunderstorm expanding over the Interior,
favoring higher elevation highlands/mountains. After a brief cool
period, temps over the Interior should be back to seasonal norms
by Wed.

West Coast and Western Interior...
Delayed spring will continue over the NW Arctic for one more day
with possible snow showers and brisk northwest winds as a strong
arctic low passes over. This low will depart by tonight with
clearing skies and drier weather for the coast. There will be an
outside shot for afternoon showers and possibly an isolated
thunderstorm near the AK Range and Kuskokwim Valley Tue. Otherwise
it will be gradually warming Tue and Wed with fairly benign and
quiescent weather conditions.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Snow showers taper off to flurries today and tonight, and
persistent 20 to 30 mph northeast winds gradually wane as well.
High pressure settles in Tue and Wed and then onshore flow returns
Wed night and Thu, with widespread fog and stratus likely. Showers
with a slight chance of isolated thunder is possible over the far
E Brooks Range later today and tonight.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7...
Weak Interior ridging is in place later this week with an upper
low in Bristol Bay and the Gulf of AK, which should mean slowly
warming temps over the Interior Mainland and showery conditions
over SW AK and the West as well as over the E Interior. Another
low dives into the Gulf of AK Thursday and looks to remain in
place for several days, with a continuation of shower chances over
the Interior, and no significant anomalies of note during this
period. It does look to briefly warm up possible above seasonal
norms Fri through Sun before the aforementioned Gulf low moves in
and returns slightly cooler air northward.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Isolated wet thunderstorm chances look fairly minimal but possible
over the E Interior today, with a less than 15 percent chance, but
enough to warrant iso wet thunder in the forecast. Heavy wetting
rains are still expected over the E Alaska Range to the Fortymile
Uplands, with widespread 0.5 inches or higher through Tuesday,
with more chances for heavy showers into the latter half of the
week as an easterly flow pattern persists. Isolated wet thunder
chances return Wed and increase by Thu as a weak thermal trough
returns to the S Interior. A slight warm-up is expected from Thu
into Sat.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
At Fort Yukon, conditions have improved with an observer reporting
that the water level was dropping and had dropped 1 foot since
yesterday. Water is expected to fall through next week.

The ice jam near Kotlik released yesterday afternoon with ice
quickly flushing out. Observer reports that the river is clear of
ice and is flowing now.

Rainfall continues across the southeast Interior through the next
several days with half an inch to an inch and a half of rain over
the Upper Tanana Basin, Eastern Alaska Range and Fortymile. There
are no significant hydro concerns for now as rivers will rise but
remain fairly low.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Flood Warning AKZ833.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ810.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ811-812.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ856.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ857-858.
&&

$$

Ahsenmacher