890
FXAK69 PAFG 302213
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
213 PM AKDT Thu May 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Heavy rain showers will move across parts of the W Interior today
and then over to parts of Norton Sound and the Seward Peninsula, in
association with an easterly wave. Slightly cooler today over the S
Interior with more thunderstorms and showers from the White Mtns
northward today. Showers and thunderstorms continue over the
northern Interior on Friday as the thermal trough remains over
that area. A slight chance of thunderstorms over the Central
Interior on Friday. Warming trend continues over the Interior for
the weekend with highs in the 70s and cooler over the west coast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Upper Levels and Analysis...
Southeasterly flow will continue over the Interior on Thursday
becoming southerly flow on Friday. An upper level low will develop
over the Gulf of Alaska on Thursday and persist into the weekend.
High pressure will give way to a trough over the Arctic over the
weekend. Models begin to diverge early next week on a placement of
an upper low over the west coast. Weak easterly flow will
continue over the Interior with continued showers and afternoon
thunderstorms.


Central and Eastern Interior...
Gusty afternoon winds in the passes of the Alaska range
gusting to 30 mph this afternoon and evening then diminishing.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms expected Thursday
and Friday, especially over the Northern Interior. Isolated
thunderstorms possible over the Central Interior as well on
Friday. The weekend looks warm with highs in the 70s for much of
the Interior and more stable on Saturday but still will have a
threat of aftn/evning showers or thunderstorms. Near red flag
conditions over the yukon flats on Saturday, with highs in mid 70s
and low RH around 20 to 25 percent. Winds are expected to be
light but will continue to monitor.

West Coast and Western Interior...
Thursday starts out dry with increasing afternoon showers and
isolated thunderstorms over the western Interior, then showers and
isolated thunderstorms expanding to the Seward Peninsula and
north of Galena Thursday aftn/evening. The Seward Peninsula will
also likely see convective showers and isolated thunder forming
late this afternoon off the higher elevation mountains. Winds
will ramp up over the Bering Strait over the weekend out of the
north around 25 to 40 mph with gusts near 45 mph. Turning
cooler this weekend along the west coast, slightly warmer
over the inland areas.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
High pressure over the Arctic coast will result in building areas
of stratus and fog again. Showers with isolated thunderstorms will
be possible over the slopes of the Brooks Range the next few
days. Point Hope will see strong northeast winds tonight through
Sunday around 25 to 40 mph.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7...
By Sunday, the Mainland will be sandwiched between an arctic
trough over the N Slope and a broad low over the Gulf of AK. It is
starting to look like Sat is the warmest day over the Interior an
then temps may gradually fall again with increased clouds and
showers, with isolated thunderstorms, from Sunday onward. Out
west, it will likely be drier and cooler with continued north
winds along the coast. Rain and mixed snow can`t be ruled out from
the Brooks Range north as the arctic low over the N Slope remains
in place.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms expected Thursday
and Friday, especially over the Northern Interior. Isolated
thunderstorms possible over the Central Interior as well on
Friday. The weekend looks warm with highs in the 70s for much of
the Interior and more stable on Saturday but still will have a
threat of aftn/evning showers or thunderstorms. Near red flag
conditions over the yukon flats on Saturday, with highs in mid 70s
and low RH around 20 to 25 percent. Winds are expected to be
light but will continue to monitor.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
The water level in Fort Yukon will continue receding very slowly.
Satellites and ground observations continue to indicate abundant
snow in the Porcupine Mountains. As temperatures warm this week,
snowmelt could lead to continued high water along the Porcupine
and the interrelated sloughs.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ810.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ811-857.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ812.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ851-854.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ856.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ858.
&&

$$