860
FXAK69 PAFG 301423 CCA
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
234 AM AKDT Thu May 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Heavy rain showers will move across parts of the W Interior today
and then over to parts of Norton Sound and the Seward Peninsula, in
association with an easterly wave. Slightly cooler today over the S
Interior with more thunderstorms and showers from the White Mtns
northward today. Temps warm Saturday and Sunday for the Interior. An
arctic front will drop into the NW Arctic this weekend which will
bring north winds and cooling temps.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Upper Levels and Analysis...
There is a 558 dam upper high now in control of most of the N
Mainland with that center currently over the N Slope. There is a
536 dam low over Bristol Bay and a departing arctic low over E
Siberia. An easterly wave is moving across the southern periphery
of the high with that feature currently shifting west of the
Alaska Range this morning, with extensive rainfall ongoing with
that feature. There is a 1025 mb high over the Chukchi Sea with a
weak 1013 mb low over the W Interior.

Model Discussion...
The numerical weather models are in fair agreement but diverge by
Saturday as an arctic trough digs south over the NW Arctic and a
weak trough lifts north over the Alaska Range. A blend of models
was favored which averages everything out. This still means it
will be warming this weekend over most of the Interior with
increasing north winds over the West Coast and NW Arctic. NAM hi-
res was favored for winds.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Heavy rain showers have shifted west and today will be cooler and
drier for the S Interior with the chance for showers and
thunderstorms shifting to the White Mtns northward, but favoring
the Yukon Flats and Upper Koyukuk. Friday is warming again and
mostly dry, with only a slight chance for isolated thunder/showers
for most of the Interior. Slightly higher chances will be over the
higher interior terrain, as usual. However, it looks mostly dry
for most of the lower elevation valleys. Saturday, things warm
more with temps shooting into the low to mid 70s. Afternoon
showers and thunderstorms will once again favor higher elevations
as well as the Dalton Highway corridor near the Brooks Range.

West Coast and Western Interior...
Rain showers and isolated thunderstorms move across the Interior
to the coast today, some a slight chance for thunder moving
offshore into Norton Sound and the YK Delta since the flow aloft
is easterly. The Seward Peninsula will also likely see convective
showers and isolated thunder forming late this afternoon off the
higher elevation mountains. Showers clear the coast by Fri
morning and it dries out again with north winds developing down
the entire coast, with only isolated to scattered afternoon
showers and thunderstorms, with that focus mainly over the
northern half of the Interior to the Brooks Range after today.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
High pressure over the Arctic coast will result in building areas
of stratus and fog again. Showers with isolated thunderstorms will
be possible over the slopes of the Brooks Range the next few
days. However, it looks like a semi-permanent frontal zone will
develop over the Central portion of the Brooks Range late Friday
into Sunday, which will result in enhanced areas of showers and
possibly thunder activity. Point Hope will see strong northeast
winds tonight through Sunday, blowing 20 to 35 mph.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7...
By Sunday, the Mainland will be sandwiched between an arctic
trough over the N Slope and a broad low over the Gulf of AK. It is
starting to look like Sat is the warmest day over the Interior an
then temps may gradually fall again with increased clouds and
showers, with isolated thunderstorms, from Sunday onward. Out
west, it will likely be drier and cooler with continued north
winds along the coast. Rain and mixed snow can`t be ruled out from
the Brooks Range north as the arctic low over the N Slope remains
in place.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Heavy rain showers with isolated thunderstorms move west today and
north toward the MIddle Yukon, S Brooks Range, and Seward
Peninsula. More isolated to widely scattered wet thunderstorms
will be possible over the White Mtns to Yukon Flats along the
thermal trough. However, it is cooler over the S Interior today
with that thermal trough remaining farther north into the weekend.
Temps warm Sat into the mid 70s with isolated thunderstorms
remaining farther north from the White Mtns northward, and east to
the Fortymile Uplands.

The long-awaited warm-up looks fairly short-lived as arctic
troughing to the north and a gulf low to the south sort of merge
and bring more chances for rain/showers and put a squeeze on the
thermal trough over the Interior. It looks fairly damp from Sunday
onward with seasonal temps but nothing standout from a fire
weather perspective except continued wet thunderstorm chances over
the E half of the Interior.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
The water level in Fort Yukon will continue receding very slowly.
Satellites and ground observations continue to indicate abundant
snow in the Porcupine Mountains. As temperatures warm this week,
snowmelt could lead to continued high water along the Porcupine
and the interrelated sloughs.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ807.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ810.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ811-812.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ817.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ851-854.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ856.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ857-858.
&&

$$

Ahsenmacher