883
FXAK67 PAJK 291306
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
506 AM AKDT Wed May 29 2024

.SHORT TERM...A weak trough moving through on Wednesday, the
remains of an occluded low in the eastern gulf, will bring with
it some enhanced chances of showers - though still expect some
breaks in the clouds for many locations even during this time.
Current forecast thinking remains similar to that of the previous
day, and areas of the central panhandle could see occasional
moderate rainfall from somewhat stronger showers. A lull in the
shower activity is expected after this wave moves through before
another weak wave moves in on Thursday, bringing more elevated
chances of showers.

Only minimal changes were made to the forecast. A few increases in
wind speed were made for some of the inner channels, especially
in the southern half of the area but left temperatures, PoP, and
most other categories largely unchanged.


.LONG TERM..../Thursday through Tuesday/...The previous days front
will weaken over the Panhandle on Thursday as fast moving ridge
moves in. Some lingering shower activity and a wind shift from
southerly to northerly before the next stronger front moves in. At
this time the Eastern Gulf front moves in early Friday with at least
min gale force winds developing. More steady and persistent rain
begins as the front moves inland along with higher QPF amounts,
especially over the south. As the fronts parent low fills and moves
to the N winds and rain rates diminish Saturday. However, any breaks
will be very short lived as another broad surface low moves over the
gulf Sunday. Beyond that indications that the pattern will repeat as
a series of surface lows move in keeping SE AK under a wet weather
pattern. For the overall synoptic pattern operational and ensembles
have remained in general agreement through the mid and long range.
Do have timing / location differences early on. GFS/NAM have been in
line and bit more consistent run to run compared to ECMWF with the
Canadian being the obvious outlier. Kept with the previous forecast
trend, a nudge to GFS/NAM but held off on matching those models
higher wind speeds just yet.

&&

.AVIATION...

A weakening low in the Gulf of Alaska will keep intermittent rain
across the central and southern panhandle through the TAF period.
For central and southern panhandle TAF sites, expect low-end VFR
to upper MVFR flight conditions with CIGs between 2500 and 5000
ft and VSBYs down to 4-6sm within heaviest showers. For northern
TAF sites, expect VFR flight conditions under BKN to OVC skies
with low-end precip chances. Widespread Sustained winds should
remain less than 15kts with potential for a sporadic gust up to
25kts for far northern panhandle TAF sites.&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GFS
LONG TERM....PRB
AVIATION...NM

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