Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY
Issued by NWS Albany, NY
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
029 FXUS61 KALY 241754 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 154 PM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024 .SYNOPSIS... The two week stretch of dry conditions over much of eastern New York and western New England will not be allowed to extend past this evening as showers look to spread into the region from northwest to southeast overnight tonight. But unsettled conditions will be short lived as yet another period of dry weather looks to begin Friday into the upcoming weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... .UPDATE...As of 2 PM EDT, low pressure situated in the Ohio Valley has forced a cirrus shield to our western CWA border while easterly flow to the east has driven clouds into the region south and east of Albany. Temperatures currently span the 60s across much of the region and adjacent high pressure has kept us dry thus far today. Few changes were needed with this update. See the previous discussion for additional details. .PREV DISCUSSION [0330 AM EDT]...Brief mid and upper-level ridging are building overhead early this morning while surface ridging noses into the region from the northeast, yielding yet another dry day. Some low clouds will move into the Upper Hudson and portions of western New England on easterly flow, while cirrus coverage spreads to the northwest as a shortwave trough approaches from the Ohio Valley, resulting in partly cloudy skies becoming mostly cloudy by this evening. Overnight tonight, the aforementioned shortwave will arrive from the southwest on the eastern flank of an upper trough. A closed upper-level low will develop over the Mississippi Valley while its parent northern stream trough continues to progress eastward into southeastern Canada. Locally, low-level flow turning out of the southeast will encourage modest warm advection while synoptic support for ascent increases ahead of the shortwave. Rain shower coverage will initially be isolated, but will begin to fill in toward Wednesday morning as the main northern stream trough makes its nearest approach. This will mark the first accumulating rainfall for most of the region in over two weeks. Following morning lows in the mid 40s to low 50s, temperatures will rise to near seasonal norms today, reaching afternoon highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s in high terrain and mid 60s to low 70s at lower elevations. Beneath overcast skies as rain showers arrive, slightly more mild conditions are expected tonight, as temperatures fall to lows in the mid 40s to mid 50s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... A positively-tilted upper-level trough will approach from the west early Wednesday morning. A potent shortwave on its western flank will continue to dive south over the Lower Mississippi Valley as a closed low while the parent northern-stream trough continues eastward from the western Great Lakes into southern Quebec and northern Maine by Thursday evening. Rain showers will be ongoing in areas north and west of Albany by early Wednesday morning, and will continue to spread south and east through the day, reaching their maximum coverage Wednesday night. Sufficient elevated instability will be present to yield a few embedded thunderstorms Wednesday night into Thursday, however severe weather is not anticipated. Cool temperatures are expected during rain showers on Wednesday, with afternoon highs only reaching the mid 50s to mid 60s across the region. A relatively narrow diurnal range will yield mild overnight lows largely in the 50s. The surface cold front will pass through the region Thursday morning, when low-level flow will pivot out of the southwest to west, and then out of the northwest by Thursday night. Despite the frontal passage, temperatures may actually be warmer on Thursday than the day before, with afternoon highs in the 60s in high terrain and low to mid 70s at lower elevations as rain showers begin to exit eastward, narrow but high-amplitude upper ridging builds to the west, and skies begin to trend clearer through the afternoon. Overnight temperatures look to remain seasonable, falling to lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s across the region. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Behind a departing shortwave, upper level heights will be rising over the area for Friday, along with warming temps aloft. Upper level ridge will be expanding eastward from the Great Lakes and into the Northeast for the weekend into early next week, with an Omega block setting up between the departing shortwave over the western Atlantic Ocean and a closed low associated with a decaying tropical system over the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. As a result, dry weather is expected for Friday through the weekend, as any moisture thanks to the remnant tropical system will remain well southwest of the area. Skies should be partly to mostly clear each day, although some late night or early morning fog will be possible for valley areas. With the warm temps aloft and decent amount of sun, temps will be a little above normal. Valley areas should see highs in the low to mid 70s, with 60s for the high terrain. Overnight lows will be in the 40s to low 50s, with no chance for any frost or freeze conditions yet. Next chance for measurable rainfall may not be until at some point towards the middle of next week when the block breaks down and the upper level low off to the west finally is able to approach the area. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... IR satellite and surface observations shows bands of high cirrus clouds over the area this morning, with some patches of low clouds in a few spots. The clouds became thin enough that some patchy fog started to form late in the overnight near KGFL/KPSF, but this should be dissipating fairly quickly this morning, with VFR conditions returning not too long after daybreak. Through the day today, flying conditions should be VFR with no precip. There will continue to be sct-bkn mid and high level clouds around through the day. South to southeast winds will be around 5 kts. No precip is expected to start tonight, but some showers are possible by the late night hours and towards Wednesday morning, mainly near KGFL. The bulk of the showers won`t occur until the daylight hours on Wednesday, so will only address with a VCSH at KGFL for now. Ceilings will be starting to lower with bkn cigs around 3500-5000 ft expected by this evening and this should continue through the overnight hours. South to southeast winds will continue around 5 to 10 kts into tonight. Outlook... Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Wednesday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. && .CLIMATE... Having last recorded measurable precipitation on September 9, the dry spell in Albany reached 14 days on Monday, September 23. This is the first two-week dry spell in Albany since May 11-25, 2021, when a trace of precipitation was observed over 15 days. Furthermore, every day in the current dry spell has seen zero precipitation, marking the first absolute dry spell of at least 14 days since October 4-26, 1963. Tuesday, September 24 is expected to extend the dry spell to 15 days before widespread rain ends the streak on Wednesday. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Gant NEAR TERM...Picard/Gant SHORT TERM...Picard LONG TERM...Frugis AVIATION...Wasula CLIMATE...Picard