Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY
Issued by NWS Albany, NY
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453 FXUS61 KALY 221935 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 335 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024 .SYNOPSIS... An upper level disturbance will bring increasing clouds late tonight, with mostly cloudy skies for Monday along with a few showers, mainly south and west of Albany. High pressure will bring dry weather and some clearing for Tuesday. An approaching low pressure and frontal system will bring increasing chances for showers for Wednesday into Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... As of 335 PM EDT, band of clouds has developed for many areas east of the Hudson River, although it has been gradially eroding across portions of Windam and eastern Litchfield County. This band of clouds should continue to gradually erode from both the west and east over the next 1-2 hours. Elsewhere, some Cu have been developing across portion of the SW Adirondacks. An isolated shower or two will remain possible in this area, and possibly extreme western Ulster County through sunset. Diurnal Cu/strato-cu should then dissipate this evening, with a period of clear to partly cloudy skies expected before clouds thicken from the west toward daybreak. This should allow temps to drop off into the mid/upper 40s across portions of the southern Adirondacks/upper Hudson Valley and western New England where enough clear skies occur, with lower 50s elsewhere. Patchy fog may develop later this evening, however overall areal extent is not expected to be too widespread at this time. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Shortwave currently across Great Lakes region will track mainly north of the region Monday. Lingering confluent upper level flow across the region should weaken shortwave and overall dynamics associated with this feature upon reaching the region Monday afternoon. However, enough mid level moisture may allow for some spotty light showers/sprinkles to reach portions of the Mohawk Valley, eastern Catskills and Schoharie County by mid to late Monday morning through mid afternoon. Should confluent upper level flow become weaker and/or shift slightly farther east than currently expected, some showers/sprinkles could even extend into the Capital Region and mid Hudson Valley midday through early/mid afternoon. Otherwise, mainly cloudy with slightly cooler temperatures for Monday, with highs 65-70 for valley areas and 60-65 across higher terrain areas. Weak shortwave ridging and strengthening surface high to our northeast should provide some clearing for Monday night, and at least partly sunny skies Tuesday. Cool Monday night with lows mainly in the 40s to lower 50s, and highs Tuesday mainly in the 60s. Clouds increase once again Tuesday night in advance of next system approaching from the west. Some showers may develop after midnight, especially for areas west of the Hudson River. Lows in the upper 40s to lower/mid 50s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Next upper level impulse and low pressure system track into the Great Lakes region Wednesday into early Thursday. This will be our best chance for measurable rain across the region, although amounts remain uncertain as there is a possibilty that nearby lingering upper level confluent flow allows incoming moisture to decrease somewhat. Nevertheless, we expect at least some showers during this time period, with some possibility for a period of steadier rain in some areas. Some weak elevated instability could even allow for a few rumbles of thunder, particularly across the Mohawk Valley, eastern Catskills and mid Hudson Valley Wednesday afternoon/evening. Some lingering showers possible Thursday, mainly in the morning, then fair weather may return by late next week into next weekend, depending on track/evolution of upper level energy tracking north and east of the region. Guidance has become more progressive with this energy, which would favor drier weather. Should this system become less progressive and/or its track shift farther south/west, more clouds and some showers may occur instead. Cool temperatures Wednesday with highs mainly in the 60s. Slightly warmer for Thursday through Sunday, assuming some drying occurs, with highs 70-75 in valleys and 65-70 across higher elevations. Lows mainly in the mid 40s to lower 50s. && .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Through 18z Monday...Mainly VFR conditions are expected for the upcoming TAF cycle. Few to scattered low ceilings around 3-5 kft are expected this evening along and ahead of approaching frontal boundary, but should yield little if any operational impact. Held on to mention of restricted visibilities at GFL after 09z, with patchy fog once again possible. This will burn off after 12z, with increasing mid to high level clouds for the remainder of the period. East to northeast winds initially around 5-10 kts will diminish and become light & variable this evening. Outlook... Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Wednesday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KL NEAR TERM...KL SHORT TERM...KL LONG TERM...KL AVIATION...Speck