Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
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818 FXUS61 KBGM 252250 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 650 PM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Rain showers are expected across the area through tonight as a frontal system moves through the area. Rain will come to an end from west to east on Thursday. High pressure and drier weather returns Friday through the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... 645 PM Update: The CAMs are indicating that there will be a break in shower activity for the first half of the overnight hours. Looking at radar, there is little to no activity out west, so it seems like the CAMs are indeed onto something. Due to this, PoPs were greatly reduced until around midnight. Then as the frontal system approaches late tonight, PoPs gradually increase into what was previously forecasted. Model guidance does show limited instability during the early morning hours tomorrow, so thunder remains in the forecast for that time period. Minor adjustments were needed to the hourly temps and winds to better match the latest observations. The showers have cooled conditions a little bit more than originally forecasted. With showers clearing out and the added moisture left behind, fog cannot be totally ruled out. However, model soundings are showing strong winds just above the surface, so that will likely prevent much fog from developing. 315 PM Update: Widespread showers have moved in a bit quicker than previously anticipated and therefore made some adjustments to PoPs for the remainder of this afternoon. For the most part, thunderstorms have not been able to develop, so removed mention of thunder for the remainder of this afternoon into this evening. The cutoff low north of the area will drag a warm front through the region tonight, which will result in additional showers and possibly a few isolated thunderstorms. Moderate rainfall is possible at times, but flooding is not expected. Then the associated cold front slowly moves through the area on Thursday, which will allow showers to slowly taper off from west to east. By the afternoon, areas west of I-81 may be mostly dry, but showers may linger a bit longer east of I-81, especially for Northeast PA to the Catskills. Otherwise, after a cloudy start area-wide, partial clearing is expected from west to east as the cold front moves through. High temperatures are expected to be in the upper 60s to mid 70s. A few lingering showers will be possible across the Poconos- Catskills Thursday evening, but otherwise the rest of the area will be dry as high pressure moves in. Lows are expected to be in the upper 40s to upper 50s. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... 230 PM Update... High pressure drop south out of Canada on Friday, leading to mostly dry conditions. However, models have been trying to sneak some moisture into NE PA Friday evening through Saturday morning. The broad upper low near the mid- Mississippi River valley absorbs the remnants of Hurricane Helene and a weak shortwave rotating around this low could come far enough north to produce some spotty showers, but PoPs are generally under 30% through Saturday. Highs Friday and Saturday are expected to be in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Lows Friday and Saturday nights are again mainly in the 50s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 240 PM Update... Sunday into Tuesday will be dominated by large ridge of high pressure. This high pressure system should prevent the aforementioned upper low from coming any further north and it exit the Mid Atlantic Coast Monday night. The next chance for any rainfall will come towards the end of the forecast period as a cold front may drop far enough southward to push across Central NY. However, at this time confidence is too low on the timing and position of this front, so have kept PoPs below 50% at this time. If this front does push through the region, expect cool conditions mid week onward with the potential for frost Wednesday night. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Low clouds across much of the area continues to bring MVFR to Fuel Alternate ceilings this afternoon. As showers move in from the south, these low ceilings will remain along with some lowering visbys as well in any steadier rain. Isolated thunder is possible, but probabilities are too low to include in the TAFs at this time. Overnight ceilings will drop back to Fuel Alternate to IFR with showers continuing. A slow improvement is expected from west to east late Thursday morning/early Thursday afternoon as showers depart the area to the east. .Outlook... Thursday afternoon...Some lingering MVFR to Fuel Alternate ceilings early, then gradually becoming VFR from west to east late. Thursday night through Monday...Mainly VFR, but valley fog is possible at KELM. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BJG NEAR TERM...BJG/BTL SHORT TERM...DK/MPK LONG TERM...DK/MPK AVIATION...BJG