518
FXUS61 KBGM 302217
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
617 PM EDT Thu May 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Chilly temperatures tonight into the middle 30s to low 40s. Dry
conditions and a steady warming trend will commence Friday and
Saturday. Except for a few showers in western areas Sunday,
quiet and warm weather will continue into next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

630 PM Update...

Expanded the frost advisory this update to also include
Delaware, Otsego, Cortland and Chenango counties as model
guidance hints at light winds tonight with clear skies.
Radiational cooling will allow temperatures to fall into the mid
30s overnight with cooler temperatures focused over our
valleys.

230 PM Update...

Gusty north-northwesterly winds across the forecast area will
taper off this evening. Calm winds and clear skies with no
precipitation expected through Thursday night. North-
northwesterly gusts pick up again Friday mid-morning.

Overnight, temperatures are expected to drop into the upper-30s
to mid-40s across the forecast area, with some places down into
the mid-30s with radiational cooling. Patchy frost across
portions of the western Twin Tiers is favorable, with a Frost
Advisory issued for Steuben and Chemung counties in NY in effect
from Midnight tonight through 8 AM Friday. Temperatures
increase into the mid-60s to low-70s for Friday, and will
decrease into the low- to mid-40s, with possibly some areas in
the upper-30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
200 PM update...

High pressure will be in control on Saturday with a surface cold
front and supporting upper wave moving in on Sunday. With warm core
ridging squarely overhead, Saturday looks to be a pristine day with
full sunshine and above normal temperatures. Dry air and clear skies
begin Saturday night with radiational cooling expected to be strong.
Thus, leaning on adjusting the NBM guidance closer toward its tenth
percentile for the overnight minimum temperature. Increasing sky
cover late may temper the cooling as compared to the previous few
nights, thus expecting mainly lower-mid 50s instead of dropping well
into the 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
200 PM update...

The general pattern during this period indicates high pressure
moving east and offshore with warmer southerly flow developing ahead
of a slowly approaching frontal boundary through Wednesday. A deeper
low pressure system will form over the northern Plains and move into
the Great Lakes region by Thursday. The higher confidence in
rainfall is actually during the Thursday time period where synoptic
features moving into the area are more clear cut in the models with
good support from ensemble guidance. The earlier part of the week is
much more uncertain with deterministic global models offering up
weak forcing and limited moisture resulting in generally dry
solutions while several ensemble members appear to be wetter.
Generally accepting the NBM mean guidance in this time frame with
lowering modifications to the PoPs in deference to the very dry
deterministic runs. Overall, the forecast will have low chance
probabilities with broad timing as any weak upper level features
are difficult to identify and time. Think there will be plenty
of dry hours each day.

Temperatures will gradually warm above normal with most areas in the
lower 80s by mid-week.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Consistent VFR conditions across Central NY and NE PA will
continue through the rest of the TAF period, with possible
exceptions to ELM and ITH. Current gusty north-northwesterly
winds will taper off this evening, and become calm overnight.

Fog development is possible at ELM and ITH, but guidance
suggests probabilities are low for ITH, and slightly higher for
ELM. We decided to include the trend of potential fog
development for ELM heading into the early morning hours, but
with confidence lower for ITH, we decided to hold off for now.

Outlook...

Friday through Saturday...Quiet pattern with mainly VFR.

Sunday through Monday...Small chance of a shower or storm/brief
restriction Sunday and Monday afternoon.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM EDT Friday for
     NYZ022-024-044>046-057.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KL
NEAR TERM...ES/KL
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...KL