476
FXUS64 KBRO 271117 AAA
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
617 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 342 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024

Pleasant weather conditions persist for Deep South Texas with slow
improvement for the beach and Gulf waters.  South Texas lies in
between a closed low over the Central Mississippi Valley and a mid-
level ridge across the Rockies and Central Plains.  Warm to hot days
and mild nights are in the offering through Saturday.  Humidity
levels will continue to run in the comfortable range with light
northwest to north winds maintaining below normal dew points today
with slow recovery Saturday as winds return out of the South. The
southerly wind should result in temperatures being bumped up 3 to 5
degrees over today`s forecast maximums. Low to mid 90s today climb
up into the mid to upper 90s for inland areas. Overnight lows
Friday night right at normal with upper 60s to lower 70s.

Residual long period swell from Hurricane Helene, now inland over
Georgia, continues to produce minor tidal flooding and a high risk
of rip currents. Coastal flood matrix continues to indicate tidal
overwash in the advisory category today with swells/seas running 6-7
feet at 11-12 seconds and King tides running near 0.5 feet above
normal. This high energy swell train should push water up near the
dunes through the morning (high tide occurs at 3:24 AM) slowly
receding this afternoon as the swell dampens out.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 342 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024

A large 500mb low centered over the Middle Tennessee Valley
initially, and will subsequently move northeast. Mid-level ridging
over the Four Corners region Saturday evening is expected to flatten
and expand briefly eastward over Deep South Texas through Midweek.
This will result in relatively quiet weather across the region
through Monday night with a dry airmass in place. Gulf moisture may
also begin to increase early next week with isolated showers
possible across the Lower RGV on Tuesday. Better rain chances are
expected Wednesday into Friday as deeper moisture arrives. PWATs
surge to over 2 inches by Wednesday night and steadily increase
through the period.

High temperatures will be mainly in the mid 90s through the
forecast. Drier air will keep heat indices below 100 degrees and
will support a minor heat risk through the period. Low temperatures
are expected to be in the upper 60s to near 70 most mornings.

In addition, long range models suggest that an area of low pressure
could develop over the western Carribean by the middle of next week.
This system could potentially enter the Gulf of Mexico by the end of
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 615 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024

High clouds streaming overhead will be dense at times, otherwise,
VFR conditions and light winds are expected for all regional
airports today and tonight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 342 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024

Friday through Saturday...A long period swell from Hurricane Helene,
currently moving over Georgia, will continue to direct a 6-7 foot
swell at 11-12 seconds towards the lower Texas coast. Small Craft
Advisories for the far offshore Gulf waters continue through 1 PM
today. With Hurricane Helene moving well inland and very light
northerly winds over the western Gulf, swells should slowly dampen
out later later today. Fair conditions are expected Saturday.

Saturday night through Wednesday...Generally favorable conditions
will prevail along the Lower Texas Coast through the period. High
pressure across the Gulf will maintain light to moderate winds and
low to moderate seas through Wednesday. A few showers will return to
the forecast on Tuesday. Isolated to scattered showers are expected
Tuesday night and Wednesday as moisture increases across the western
Gulf.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             91  72  94  73 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN               92  69  95  69 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN                 94  73  99  73 /   0   0   0  10
RIO GRANDE CITY         93  70  96  70 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      87  77  89  78 /   0   0   0   0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     87  71  92  72 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ451-
     454-455.

     High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for TXZ451-454-455.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ170-
     175.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...59-GB
LONG TERM....63-KC
AVIATION...59-GB